17-Jan-2008
	Headlines Packed US Calendar Today  Start Trading  Demo Account  SuperMini Account  Standard Account  Archive  16-Jan-2008  15-Jan-2008  14-Jan-2008  11-Jan-2008  Market Trend   EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY USD/CHF AUD/USD EUR/GBP Daily Trend Weekly Trend Resistance 1.4806 1.9861 109.03 1.1134 0.8867 0.7523 1.4756 1.9799 108.45 1.1100 0.8906 0.7499 1.4700 1.9750 108.00 1.1089 0.8860 0.7467 Support 1.4612 1.9689 107.01 1.0999 0.8790 0.7400 1.4567 1.9634 106.67 1.0956 0.8745 0.7367 1.4523 1.9578 106.12 1.0912 0.8699 0.7314
	Economic News
	USD
	Today, the US calendar is packed with important releases such as the Housing Starts, Building Permits, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, and the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who will speak about the US economic outlook before the US House of Representatives Committee, in Washington DC. As it seems, weaker-than-expected figures can trigger the Fed to cut interest rates by 75 basis points instead of 50, a move that will make it harder for the U.S. dollar to rebound in the midterm. It's likely, though, that the U.S. economy will be relatively weak through the first half of 2008 - and possibly for most of the year. Inflation data was released yesterday. The U.S. government reported that the Core CPI rose just 0.2% in December, which was right in line with expectations, indicating that inflation remains in check. December's CPI increase followed a sharp 0.8% jump in November and was modestly ahead of economists' forecasts. The department reported both food and energy costs rose during the full year of 2007 at the fastest rates since 1990. Energy costs in the last 12 months were up 17.4% while food gained 4.9%. The Federal Reserve is closely watching to see whether the jump in food and energy becomes more widespread and starts pushing core inflation higher. On the basis of yesterday's Capacity Utilization Rate report, Industrial production was unchanged in December, against the median forecast for a drop. Capacity utilization, which measures the proportion of plants in use, fell to 81.4% from 81.6% in November. Workers' salary failed to keep up with the higher inflation and Average weekly earnings, after adjusting for inflation, dropped by 0.9 percent in 2007, the biggest slow down since a 1.5 percent fall in 2005. Although a local strengthening move did occur for the USD, it still appears like a minutes before the rate statement will be quite violent and the state of the greenback will continue to be quite bearish in the near future.
	EUR
	Yesterday, we noticed an impressive recovery of the USD versus the Cable and the 15-nation currency, this progress began after the Federal Reserve report showed the US economy increased at a humble pace at the end of 2007. The Euro traded at 1.4721, down from 1.4833 late Tuesday in New York. Later, in midday trading in New York, it reached the 1.4637 at its lowest point. An additional fact which assisted to weaken the Euro was the warning which arrived from the European Central Bank (ECB) policy maker Yves Mersch who suggested that the Euro zone economy is facing a significant faze of a slowdown, he also mentioned several dovish comments about a possible up coming risks to the Euro zone economy due to slowdown in the world's economy. As for today's European calendar, the Euro-Zone Trade Balance is expected to be released with a consensus of 3.8B after a previous release of 4.0B, and together with the ECB monthly bulletin might take the EUR further down if the trade balance comes out lower than expected. It appears that most of today's movement will derive from the US, as most of the important economic events will be coming from there, and attract most of the traders attention.
	JPY
	Yesterday, the Japanese Yen gained against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies after economists in the U.S. and in the European central bank said that western economic growth is slowing down. Japanese economic data was mixed with machine orders and CGPI beating expectations but the trade numbers fell short of expectations. The yen climbed for a third day against the euro, but the most significant move was made in the USD/JPY and the NZD/JPY pairs. The Japanese currency stroke new two-and-a-half-year highs against the USD and traded around 106.00 at several points. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average advanced 1.1 percent to 13,656.95, rising from its lowest close since October 2005. The Topix Index, valued at 16 times earnings compared with its average 29 times for the past four years, advanced 0.9 percent. As for today, the Japanese calendar will be void of any major releases, which will probably cause the positive JPY momentum to continue, and for all the crosses to react more with US and EUR markets.
	Technical News
	EUR/USD
	An opposite head & shoulders structure is forming on the daily chart which indicates on an upcoming bullish trend with a first target price of 1.4713 (Fibonacci 61.8%), and a second of 1.4811 (Fibonacci 76.4%). This trend is expected to be quite aggressive, and if key levels mentioned above will be breached the momentum will become slightly stronger.
	GBP/USD
	A bearish channel is forming on the 4 hour chart, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend, however 1.9633 is a key resistant level as it is considered as the top barrier of the channel. In case of a breakout, the next target price is located at 1.9794 (Fibonacci 23.6%) which will create a good entry point for a long position.
	USD/JPY
	The 4 hour Slow Stochastic is crossing the 68 level from above which is a classic bearish signal; however the RSI and Momentum have a positive slope which contradicts the bearish signal. The direction of the future trend is a bit vague at the moment, and traders should wait for key level breaks on both sides to better determine the trend's momentum
	USD/CHF
	The daily chart implies a clear bullish trend as the Slow Stochastic crossed the 8 and have a positive slope. The momentum is bullish and RSI floating in neutral territory which may indicates on a possible long position with some steam is left in it. At the moment, going long appears to be preferable.
	The Wild Card
	Crude Oil
	Oil is floating at the bottom barrier of a downwards channel on the 4 hour chart. It also crossed a key Fibonacci level of 91.30 which indicates an increasing bullish momentum. This is a great opportunity for forex traders to enter the market with a long position, and being supported by a strong technical formation.
	Indicators  Date  Time  Country  Event  Period  Previous  Forecast  Importance 2008-01-17 01:30:00 AUD Unemployment Rate 4.5% 4.4% *** 2008-01-17 02:30:00 AUD Employment Change 47.6K 20.0K ***** 2008-01-17 12:00:00 EUR Trade Balance 4.0B 3.8B *** 2008-01-17 12:00:00 CHF ZEW Expectations -29.7 - * 2008-01-17 15:30:00 USD Housing Starts 1.19M 1.15M *** 2008-01-17 15:30:00 USD Building Permits 1.16M 1.14M *** 2008-01-17 15:30:00 CAD Foreign Securities Purchases -24.3B 1.5B *** 2008-01-17 15:30:00 USD Unemployment Claims 322K 330K **** 2008-01-17 16:00:00 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks - - **** 2008-01-17 17:00:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index -1.6 -1.0 *** 2008-01-17 17:00:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks - - *****
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