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Friday, 25 Sep 2009

Dollar, Yen up Ahead of the G20 Meeting

The Dollar snaps a two week decline versus the EUR after disappointing U.S Home Sales data and ahead of the G20 meeting. The USD and JPY are benefiting from the recent surge in risk aversion ahead of the G20 meeting and a concern that the group's leaders will pose stricter regulations on financial markets. The drop in Oil prices, which began Wednesday, only exacerbated yesterday as equity markets tumbled and the Dollar strengthened, putting pressure on the commodities market.

EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYUSD/CHFAUD/USDEUR/GBP
Daily Trendupupdowndownupdown
Weekly Trendupupnodownupdown
Resistance1.47601.607091.751.03900.57650.9270
1.47311.604091.421.03580.87300.9235
1.47001.600591.101.03250.87000.9205
Support1.46351.593790.351.02610.86370.9151
1.46041.590590.001.02300.86050.9120
1.45751.587589.701.02000.85750.9090

Economic News

USD - Dollar Rebounds on Return to Risk Aversion

The Dollar came roaring back yesterday against its rivals as poor housing data and falling equity markets sapped traders appetite for risk. Existing home sales numbers were released to an unspectacular reception with the numbers failing to reach their expected targets. Only 5.10M existing homes were sold as compared with economists forecasts of 5.36M. This sent traders running from higher-yielding currencies and into long Dollar positions.

Yesterday's trading was notably volatile, with the EUR/USD climbing in early European trading hours to a daily high of 1.4789, only to end the day at 1.4650 from 1.4721. Driving the early appreciation for the EUR was a lower number of U.S. Unemployment Claims. These gains were later eroded after less than spectacular housing data was released. Against the Yen the Dollar was down as traders looked for the less risky currency. The pair closed at 90.82 from 91.30.

Looking ahead to today's trading, we can expect further volatility of the Dollar. The Group of Twenty (G20) meets for a second day today. Comments made by the global heads of finance can move the market fast so traders should be aware of their impact. U.S. New Home Sales data is due at 2:00pm GMT time. If the New Home Sales is anything like the Existing Homes Sales data from yesterday, the EUR/USD could continue its decline for the second day in a row to finish the week near the 1.4550 mark.

EUR - Pound Crumbles on Currency Comments

The Pound took a thrashing during yesterday's trading as comments by the Bank of England sank the British currency. A report surfaced that Bank of England (BOE) Governor Mervyn King stated a weaker Pound could be beneficial to the U.K. economic recovery. It is assumed the BOE prefers a weak Pound. The weaker currency could help boost British exports, making them relatively cheaper than their foreign counterparts.

Traders immediately began bidding the Pound lower, sinking the GBP/USD to 1.5947 from 1.6353, for a single day decline of 2.5%. The EUR also rose 2% on the Pound as the EUR/GBP ended at 0.9816 from 0.9004, and the GBP/AUD fell to 1.8467 from 1.8803.

If the BOE does prefer the Pound to depreciate, this could create an opportunity for those traders who feel the British currency is not properly valued. Perhaps the BOE sees the possibility for further weakening of the Pound. Will the bank take future action to help artificially deflate the nation's currency?

JPY - Yen Rises on Negative U.S. News

As the rally of riskier currencies puts on the breaks, demand for the Yen is increasing. Yesterday's news of lower U.S. housing data helped slow the rally for riskier assets, thereby boosting the Yen. This trend continues to go unabated, with the USD/JPY rising alongside riskier assets, and falling when risk sentiment diminishes. This was the case yesterday as the USD/JPY fell to 90.82 from 91.30

Traders should be watching today's data releases from the U.S. for today's direction of the Yen. If the negative news will continue further into the day, we could have another pullback of some of the higher yielding currencies. If so the USD/JPY could be looking to drop below the 90.00 support line.

Crude Oil - Economic Data Lowers Demand for Crude

The price of Crude Oil was significantly lower yesterday as poor U.S. housing data and a strong Dollar weighed on the commodities market. Traders took the information as a pullback to economic growth and a sustained economic recovery, thereby reducing demand for the commodity. Oil fell below a significant support line of $66 and finished the day down at $65.85 from $68.36.

Yesterday's 3.6% drop in price was the second day in a row for a pullback in Crude prices. The valuation seems to be taking hints from reported economic data. If this is the case, traders will be wise to follow today's U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales numbers. We could see Crude Oil trading at $65 by the end of today.

Technical News

EUR/USD

The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the 4-hour Chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.

GBP/USD

It appears that after yesterday's sharp downward movement, several signals point to a correction today. The 4-hour Slow Stochastic shows a fresh bullish cross, as does the daily MACD; with the price hovering in the over-sold territory on the 2-hour, 4-hour, and daily RSI.

USD/JPY

The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart's Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.

USD/CHF

It appears as if a fresh bearish cross has formed on the hourly MACD. A bearish cross is also impending on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic, with the RSI hovering near the overbought territory.

The Wild Card

USD/SEK

It appears as if a fresh bearish cross has formed on the hourly MACD, suggesting to forex traders that an opportunity is approaching. The RSI on the 2-hour and 4-hour charts are sitting in an overbought territory. Combined with a fresh bearish cross on the 4-hour Slow Stochastic, it is evident that a downward movement is impending. Going short on this pair today may be advised.

Current Time: 09/02 18:17 GMT
# Time $€£¥ Event Per. Prev. Fore. Act. Imp.
09/02
00:01GBP+ BRC Shop Price Indexy/y-1.9%*-1
00:30AUD+ AIG Services Index49.3*-1
09/03
USD+ Total Vehicle Sales16.5M16.5M-1
02:30AUD+ GDPq/q1.1%0.4%-5
04:20AUD+ RBA Gov Stevens Speaks***5
08:15EUR+ Spanish Services PMI56.255.5-3
08:45EUR+ Italian Services PMI52.851.7-3
09:00EUR+ Final Services PMI53.553.5-1
09:30GBP+ Services PMI59.158.6-5
10:00EUR+ Retail Sales m/m0.4%-0.3%-3
10:00EUR+ Revised GDP0.0%--1
15:00CAD+ BoC Rate Statement***5
15:00CAD+ Overnight Rate1.00%1.00%-5
15:00USD+ Factory Ordersm/m1.1%10.9%-3
19:00USD+ Beige Book***3
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