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Friday, 9 Oct 2009
Dollar Boosted Slightly by Ben Bernanke's Speech
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech yesterday gave a much needed boost to the Dollar against its major currency counterparts, particularly the JPY. Bernanke shifted to a more hawkish tone in terms of the timing of exit strategy following moves by other central banks, stating the bank is ready to tighten monetary policy once the economy improves. ECB President Trishet also supported a strong Dollar in his statement yesterday.
USD - Dollar Recovers Losses after Trichet-Bernanke Exchange
While starting the day with bearish tendencies, the US Dollar seemingly rebounded in later trading. Spiking to as low as 1.4820 against the EUR, the USD recovered and is currently trading just above 1.4700. Similar price swings were experienced against the JPY, CHF and GBP yesterday as well.
Positive economic data, a boost in market confidence and a consequent rise in equities all took their toll on the greenback in today's early trading hours. However, the buck saw a rebound following statements from European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet which was less hawkish than anticipated. Better than expected figures in the US Unemployment Claims report also added a small boost in USD appetite.
Later in the day, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke spoke, responding to Trichet's comments with a verification of tightening monetary policy to help keep the Dollar strong. Trichet's remarks were not as forceful as most expected and Bernanke's comments were strong enough to counter some of the EUR's recent gains, leading the greenback to a late-session rally Thursday evening.
Looking ahead to the end of this week's trading, there are 3 important pieces of data to consider today. First is a speech being made by Trichet at a university in Venice, Italy. After yesterday's comments about forex markets, the EUR and the USD, Trichet may use this speech to reiterate some sentiments regarding the EUR's recent bullish movement. Later in the day, the US will report its trade balance figures, but more importantly, Canada will be releasing its Unemployment Rate as well as some important housing numbers. The CAD may be one of the day's leading market movers and traders need to keep an eye on it in order to make some reasonable profits.
EUR - EUR/CHF at Trend Peak, Due for Downward Correction
The EUR experienced mixed results today against its primary currency rivals. Following the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy statement, the EUR saw reversal to its previous upward movements, and Federal Reserve Board Chairman Bernanke's comments later in the day only reinforced the USD's ascent versus the 16-nation currency. The EUR finished the day against the USD at 1.4723, and down around 0.9190 against the Pound Sterling.
While holding interest rates steady, both the Bank of England (BOE) and the ECB expected to see moderate gains directly afterward. However, ECB President Trichet's comments were seen as less forceful than was expected and resulted in a corrective move against its primary rival, the US Dollar.
The EUR has also reached a peak point versus the Swiss Franc (CHF) in today's trading and many investors are now expecting a reversal to its latest uptrend. This behavior is following suit within a distinct, long-term bearish channel in the EUR/CHF pair.
Today's economic data from the Euro-Zone will be very limited with only a few minor reports being released regarding French and Italian industrial production. But Jean-Claude Trichet is due to speak at a university in Venice and could reiterate some of his stronger sentiments about the EUR's recent bullishness during his talk. Traders should watch for any news regarding this speech as it may be the leading factor in the EUR's movements today.
JPY - JPY Falls before Holiday Weekend
The Japanese Yen appeared to take a hit across the boards in today's trading. The JPY closed the day down against most of its primary currency rivals. The GBP/JPY pair ended Thursday's trading at 142.89, while the USD/JPY finished at 89.15. It doesn't appear as if the JPY has broken out of its bullish channel versus these major currencies, but yesterday's movements have some investors covering their short positions before the weekend begins.
Adding to this short-position covering is the anticipation of a long weekend in Japan as the island economy gears up to celebrate Health Sports Day on Sunday. Traders are ditching their JPY positions in exchange for other assets which will carry normal volume levels going into the start of a fresh week. This lends credence to the idea that the JPY will begin to recover these losses by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. As for economic news, Japan has no news being anticipated, which means investors will be focusing on the economies of the West in Friday's trading.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Price near Short-Term Peak; Correction on the Way?
Crude Oil's price has held steady between $66 and $74 a barrel over the past 3 months and recent price behavior doesn't suggest any changes in this pattern. After climbing back above $70 a barrel this week, the price of Crude Oil has seemingly reached a short-term peak and may head downward as this week comes to an end.
Contrary to this prediction, however, is this week's US Crude Oil Inventory report which showed inventories falling by 1.0 million barrels last week. This news highlights a potential trend of growth in oil consumption, and thus slightly higher demand. If demand is indeed on the rise, traders could see oil prices climb beyond their current level of $71 a barrel and go as high as $73 by early next week.
The typical range trading on the 4-hour chart continues. The daily chart RSI is floating in neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bullish cross forming on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long might be a wise choice.
There is a fresh bullish cross forming on daily chart's MACD indicating a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. The upward direction on the hourly chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upward breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The daily chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, the hourly Chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going short might be a wise choice.
The pair has been range-trading for a while now, with no specific direction. The Daily chart's Slow Stochastic providing us with mixed signals. The 4 hour charts do not provide a clear direction as well. Waiting for a clearer sign on the hourlies chart might be a good strategy today.
The Wild Card
The pair may experience a correction to its recent bullish run. A bearish cross is evident on the hourly, 2 hour and 4 hour Slow Stochastic charts and with the RSI floating in the overbought territory on the hourly, 2 hour and 4 hour charts. Furthermore a breach of the upper level of the Bollinger Bands is evident on the 4 hour and daily charts. Forex traders are advised to go short for the day.
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|01:00||AUD||CB Leading Index||m/m||0.3%||-||-|
|01:00||GBP||BoE Inflation Letter||*||*||*|
|02:30||AUD||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes||*||*||*|
|04:00||NZD||Credit Card Spending||y/y||3.6%||-||-|
|05:30||JPY||All Industries Activity||m/m||0.6%||-||-|
|16:30||USD||FOMC Member Bullard Speaks||*||*||*|
|17:45||CAD||BOC Gov Carney Speaks||*||*||*|