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Tuesday, 22 Dec 2009
Dollar Gains Broadly on Optimistic Comments by Chicago Fed Governor
The Dollar gained against almost all of its major counterparts on speculation the Federal Reserve is getting ready to withdraw the stimulus and tighten monetary Policy. Fueling investors' expectations that U.S. interest rates to rise sooner than expected is a continually brightening U.S economic outlook.
USD - Dollar Continue to Strengthen Against Rivals
The Dollar was up again most major rivals Monday on expectations of continuing improvement in the U.S economy ahead of this week's data release. The Dollar rose to a six week high versus the Yen and traded near a three and a half month high against the EUR. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 78.059 from 77.758.
The Dollar has been gaining in recent sessions, as concerns over Greece's government deficit have weighed on the EUR as well as upbeat economic data from the U.S which is prompting investors to reassess when the Federal Reserve will begin tightening the U.S. monetary policy.
While a slow news day is expected today ahead of the Holliday weekend, the release of the Existing Home Sales at 15:00 GMT is expected to provide some volatility to the Dollar, with better then expected results intensifying the Dollar's recent upward trend.
EUR - EUR Trades near a 3 Month Low versus the USD
The EUR traded yesterday near a 3 month low versus the USD as the European Commission expressed concerns about a strong EUR. Monday, the EUR was at $1.4283 from $1.4335 late Friday and at Y130.25 from Y129.57. The U.K. Pound was at $1.6051 from $1.6127.
The Swiss Franc touched its strongest level since March against the EUR extending its advance past the 1.50 level on speculation the Swiss National Bank has relaxed its resistance to gains in the currency.
A slow news day is expected today from the Euro-Zone today ahead of the long holiday weekend, the release of the British Current Account and Final GDP at 9:30 GMT will likely provide some volatility for the GDP with
JPY - Yen Down versus USD and EUR
The Yen was at 91.06 against the USD from 91.17 yesterday and at 130.09 per EUR from 130.18. The Japanese currency received some support from a report that showed Japan posted a wider than expected trade surplus in November. The surplus came to 373.9 billion Yen, greater than the 319.2 billion Yen expected by economists.
Recent economic data released from Japan, including the merchandise trade data and the current-account surplus, is pointing towards economic improvement and an upward trend, which will likely put upward pressure on the Yen in the longer term, possibly reversing the recent losses.
Crude Oil - Oil Down on Strengthening Dollar
Crude futures fell Monday as the Dollar strengthened, offsetting gains on colder weather expectations and geopolitical worries. Light, sweet crude for January delivery settled 89 cents lower at $72.47 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touched an intraday high of $74.32 a barrel. The contract expired on Monday. Crude for February delivery settled 70 cents, or 0.9%, lower at $73.72 a barrel. Oil prices were supported recently by the massive snowfall in the U.S and Europe as well as geopolitical concerns in Iraq and Nigeria.
Today investors should pay attention to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting in Luanda, Angola, where they will discuss production levels. While quotas are expected to stay unchanged this might still affect negatively on Oil levels as supply is still abundant.
The pair has recorded much bearish behavior in the past several days. However, the technical data indicates that this trend may reverse anytime soon. For example, the daily chart's Stochastic Slow signals that a bullish reversal is imminent. An upward trend today is also supported by the RSI. Going long with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.
The cross has been dropping for the past month now, as it now stands at the 1.6060 level. However, the 4-hour Chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long with tight stops may turn out to be the right choice today.
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-bought territory on the 4-hour chart's RSI indicating a downward correction may be imminent. The downward direction on the hourly chart's RSI also supports this notion. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The USD/CHF cross has experienced a bullish trend for the past month. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end. The RSI of the daily chart shows the pair floating in the overbought territory, indicating that a downward correction will happen anytime soon. Going short with tight stops might be a wise choice.
The Wild Card
Gold prices are once again dropping, and it is currently traded around $1092.25 per ounce. And now, the daily chart's Slow Stochastic is giving bullish signals, indicating that gold prices might go up. This might give forex traders a great opportunity to enter a very popular trend.
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