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Friday, 27 Mar 2009
Dollar to Move Today on Release of Economic Data
The Dollar has seen increased strength as rising U.S. equity markets helped to erode the dramatic price declines from the previous week. Trading will end this week as a slue of economic data due to be released today will provide ample opportunities for traders to enter the market on higher than normal volatility.
USD - Dollar Recovery Continues
The Dollar rose yesterday against most of its major rivals as riskier currencies fell out of favor. Despite strong gains in U.S. equities, the Dollar gained ground as the likelihood of further European Interest Rate cuts loom over the currency markets. At the end of the Thursday's trading, the EUR/USD was little changed, despite high volatility most of the day. The USD/JPY closed higher at 98.32 from 97.77. Against the Pound the Dollar also finished higher at 1.4481 from 1.4585.
The dramatic sell off of the Dollar appears to have ceased as yesterday's trading was characterized by reduced market risk and future Interest Rate levels. The Dollar was sold heavily last week, sparked by the announcement that the Federal Reserve will begin a quantitative easing program. Slowly the currency markets are returning to relatively normal trading patterns as traders see little reason to take risks on higher yielding currencies in the face of the economic downturn.
Today's trading may be characterized by a glut of economic indicators surrounding consumer spending and attitudes. Due today are personal spending numbers and a revised consumer sentiment report. A better than expected result in the data releases could provide another boost to the Dollar as the currency continues to recoup its losses from last week. Look for the EUR/USD to drop below the 1.3500 level today.
EUR - EUR Set for Further Rate Cuts
The EUR experienced mixed results yesterday as the market begins to price in potential Interest Rate cuts to the European currency. Minor declines were seen against the Dollar, but the EUR climbed consistently against its other currency crosses. The EUR/JPY finished the day higher at 133.41 from 1.3267, and the EUR/GBP ended up at 0.9368 from 0.9301.
Market participants are set to start pricing in the potential for another Interest Rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB is scheduled to meet next week to decide if European Interest Rates will need to be trimmed from their current rate of 1.5%. One politician weighing in on the matter was British Prime Minister Gordon Brow. In a press conference; Brown said he expects that the European benchmark rate would fall below its current level. Perhaps Prime Minister Brown is short on the EUR for obvious reasons.
Traders today will want to pay attention to a few important releases from the Euro-Zone economy and Britain. From Europe we will see new industrial order numbers. This indicator is forecasted to show worsening numbers that highlight the deep recession that plagues Europe. Also we will have Britain's current account figures released. This number may have the potential to surprise the market. Better than expected results could add some buoyancy to the GBP against the EUR in today's European trading session.
JPY - Yen Foresees New Resistance Level
The Yen suffered during yesterday's trading; sliding against the Dollar, but in early morning hours of the Japanese trading session the trend began to reverse. Recent gains in equity markets have proven to be troublesome for the Yen. The Japanese currency has traditionally been used as a safe haven asset, but recent safe haven currency movements have not been kind to the Yen. Perhaps this is due to the underlying weakness in the Japanese economy and the rapid decline of the country's export sector.
The Yen slid against the Dollar to 98.32 from 97.77. Against the Pound the JPY finished down slightly at 142.40 from 142.63. The JPY's most notable loss was against the EUR, as the EUR/JPY level finished up 74 pips at 133.41. The financial year in Japan wraps up at the end of March. With the New Year coming, so may be the 100.00 Yen mark against the Dollar. The resistance level is significant as the USD/JPY has not touched on this valuation since the beginning of November.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Prices Soar
The price of Crude Oil soared in Thursday's trading session, adding to big gains in the past several weeks. Crude prices finished up slightly over $1.50 or 3% at $53.81. Helping the commodity continue its price appreciation has been the recovery of U.S. equity markets from their New Year lows. What has also helped Crude prices as of late is the increased optimism by from investors, which was initiated last week by a string of positive economic data releases from the U.S.
An uptrend is showing in the last two weeks of trading with a host of a number of factors working in favor of rising Crude Oil prices. The rally in stocks has correlated with the rise in price of Crude Oil. It has also raised hopes that a spike in demand may be coming along with it. Adding support to the price appreciation has been the steadfast commitment by OPEC to continually reduce the supply of Crude Oil. Combine this with a weak U.S. Dollar and it makes for a rally in the price of Oil. Traders may look for a short term price cap of $55 to take profits.
The typical range trading on the 4 hour chart continues. Both the hourly RSI and Slow Stochastic are floating in neutral territory. However, the daily Chart's RSI is already floating in the overbought territory indicating that a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The bullish trend is loosing its steam and the pair seems to consolidate around the 1.4480 level. The 4 hour chart's RSI is already floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. When the downwards breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The hourly chart is showing mixed signals with its RSI fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, there is a fresh bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. In that case traders are advised to swing in after the breach takes place.
The price of this pair appears to be floating in the over-sold territory on the daily chart's RSI indicating an upward correction may be imminent. The upward direction on the 4-hour chart's Momentum oscillator also supports this notion. When the upwards breach occurs, going long with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The Wild Card
Oil prices rose significantly in the last two week and peaked at $53.75 per barrel. However, daily charts' RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage
|09:00||EUR||German Ifo Business Climate||103.2||103.0||-|
|14:00||EUR||Belgian NBB Business Climate||-6.8||-5.3||-|
|14:45||USD||Flash Services PMI||57.1||57.3|
|23:50||JPY||Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes||3.5%||3.6%||-|