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Tuesday, 5 Feb 2008
ISM Non-Manufacturing on Tap
Yesterday, saw a return to mixed results by the greenback against its most commonly traded currency pairs, as the week continues to be driven by how world economies react to the unstable and disappointing US economy. Last Friday's release of the Non Farm payrolls could still have a lasting effect on dollar value, as the 17K job loss from January had initially ravaged the greenback, leaving some uncertainty as to if and for how long it will be a factor.
A large portion of the focus for this week will not be on US economic data alone, but outside data which in large part will be reacting to last week's full schedule from the US.
Interest rate statements will be announced this week in Australia, Europe and Great Britain, each of which are expected to react differently to the greenback's 125bp cut over the last 2 weeks by the Federal Reserve. Firstly, Australia is expected to raise their interest rate to 7%, a 25bp bump from its benchmark rate, as Australian economists expect to see record highs for the Aussie dollar against the USD, which could breach the 90 cent mark today. The British, on the other hand, seem to be leaning toward rate cuts to try and revive the British economy. As the week continues on, a small collection of important US economic data will be released. Pending Home Sales, Unemployment claims, Non-Farm Productivity are all set to individually push the greenback forward. On tap today is the release of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for the month of January. The 15:00 GMT release is expected to fall slightly from 54.4 to 53.0 but should not cause as much volatility as usual, due to the small expected change. The manufacturing figure, coupled with 3 less significant figures to be released today, will likely keep the dollar trading within a small range.
With all the talk of movement in world interest rates, such as cuts in Britain and the US and hikes in Australia, the ECB continues its hawkish stance regarding it currency and will more likely than not keep rates the same ahead of Thursday's scheduled Interest Rate announcement. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, seems keen on keeping the thriving 15 nation currency intact, keeping rates at 4% flat. PPI and Consumer Confidence both returned negatively yesterday, having little effect on the EUR currency crosses.
As Thursday's interest rate announcement slowly approaches, today could be an important one for the EUR, as most of its significant data for the week is on today's schedule. First is the 8:55 GMT release of German Service PMI, which is forecasted to lose 0.7 points. That will be followed by a 10:00 GMT announcement of Retail Sales for the month of January, which is forecasting at 0.2%, 7 percentage points up from its last measurement. These two figures should set the tone for the next couple of days, as all other EUR data will not appear until Thursday.
It is no surprise that the EUR continues to dominate the USD, with elections and uncertainty still a big factor regarding the dollar; we should begin to see a bigger push by the EUR as it moves toward $1.50. If economic data returns with better than expected results, we could very well get to that mark faster than expected.
The JPY saw a decline in value yesterday versus most of its major counterparts as carry trading slowly picked up pace ahead of expected Australian interest rate hikes. Another interesting trend has been the relationship between the JPY and the global stock markets, as the Japanese currency gets its most movement when responding to global financial trends. More importantly has been the direct relationship between carry trading and the Dow Jones. The two used to be directly correlated as one dictated the others movement in the opposite direction; however in recent days the trend seems to be changing. Yesterday the JPY spent a good portion of its time, in the midst of growing carry trade behavior, whereas the Dow Jones slowly fell all day long. Such behavior has forced investors to retool their strategies regarding the JPY.
Today, the Japanese economy will be absent on the economic calendar as we look ahead towards Wednesday's Leading Index and Thursday's Machine Tool Orders.
As the Aussie dollar continues to strengthen, this could push the JPY down further and further. This will likely be the case until at least the end of this week.
After a relatively choppy session overnight the pair now consolidates around 1.4820. The momentum on the 4 hour chart is mixed with a slight bullish tendency, as the daily chart indicates a stronger bullish momentum. It is advised to wait for a break above 1.4830 before initiating a long position.
The cable bottomed at 1.9350 and since, is showing bullish momentum that appears to be continuing with little interruption. The hourlies are moderately bullish, and the daily chart is showing that a bullish break might be imminent. Going long appears to be the right choice today.
The pair is still floating in a range with no distinct direction or momentum. The hourlies are floating in neutral territory and the daily slow stochastic is showing a slightly bullish momentum. Forex traders are advised to wait for a clear signal before entering in any direction.
The pair has started to accumulate bullish momentum as the 1.0900 level was breached. The 4 hour slow stochastic is showing a growing bullish momentum as the daily chart supports the bullish notion. A breach through 1.0940 will validate this move and might take the pair back to the 1.1000 levels again.
The Wild Card
Gold has made a failed attempt to breach through the 898.60 level which is a key Fibonacci support level. The inability to breach that level generates fresh new bullish momentum with a target of 907.00 at the local level. This could be a great opportunity for Forex trader to enjoy a very strong reversal move.
|01:00||AUD||HIA New Home Sales||1.2%||*||-|
|EUR||German Prelim CPI||m/m||0.3%||0.0%||-|
|01:00||EUR||Italian 10-y Bond Auction||2.60|1.5||*||-|
|02:30||AUD||Private Capital Expenditure||q/q||-4.2%||-0.8%||-|
|08:55||EUR||German Unemployment Change||-12K||-6K||-|
|09:00||EUR||M3 Money Supply||y/y||1.5%||1.5%||-|
|09:00||EUR||Italian Retail Sales||m/m||-0.7%||-0.2%||-|
|11:00||GBP||CBI Realized Sales||21||25||-|
|13:30||USD||Prelim GDP Price Index||q/q||2.0%||2.0%||-|
|15:00||USD||Pending Home Sales||m/m||-1.1%||0.6%||-|
|15:30||USD||Natural Gas Storage||88B||79B||-|
|00:05||GBP||GfK Consumer Confidence||-2||-1||-|
|00:30||JPY||Tokyo Core CPI||y/y||2.8%||2.7%||-|