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USD/JPY Moving Towards 4-year Trend Line
Yesterday's manufacturing survey from Japan was not inspiring though the Chinese PMI was more encouraging. The Japanese Tankan survey came in weaker than expected at -4 on expectations of -2. The Chinese flash HSBC PMI climbed to 49 in the month of December from 47.7 in November. The survey was below the 50 boom/bust level for the 2nd month in a row but the improvement is encouraging.
Despite the negative Japanese data the USD/JPY appears to be taking its cues primarily from the movements of the USD. Yesterdays' strong US Empire State Manufacturing Index and lower than expected weekly unemployment claims provided a pause in the bearish market sentiment and allowed for the USD to come off of its highs across the board.
Should the near-term trend of USD strength continue the USD/JPY could test the June 2007 trend line which comes in at 78.50. A break here will expose the post-intervention high of 79.50. To the downside the December 8th low of 77.15 may be supportive.
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