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Friday, 30 May 2008
Lower Oil Prices Continue to Push the USD Up.
Yesterday the Greenback was in a rally against its rival currencies after the release of Prelim GDP q/q data and the hawkish comments by members of the Federal Reserve regarding a possible increase in the interest rate this year. The greenback's rally was also supported by weakness in oil prices. Around 15:54 GMT, the USD was traded as low as 1.5484 at the New York Market from its 1.5586 open rate, reaching its highest value since May 20. The GBPUSD also fell from 1.9803 to 1.9724 with its lowest value at 1.9672 after the announcement of the UK House Prices, whom fell 2.5%, the biggest fall since 1991 in the UK house price survey.
The slight growth of 0.9% in the GDP this first quarter from the previous result of 0.6% was based on a 1.1% increment in business construction compared with a 6.2% fall estimated last month and a reduction on imports, which fell 3.6% from an estimated increase of 2.5%. For many specialists this figure provides certain relief and sets a basis for opportunity growth, in their opinion, new sales will be supported by new production replacing old items on existence and clearing the fear that the American economy is close to recession. It seems like the GDP has given USD buyers a certain confidence boost. Also yesterday Crude Oil prices fell over $4 after the signal of a strong economy and the Government announcement of an investigation into oil trading following the inventories fall of a unexpected 8.8 million barrels last week.
As for today there are several economic data releases expected from the US, among them we await the monthly reading of the Core PCE Price Index with an estimated 0.1% price increase for all domestic personal consumption, and the Personal Spending rate which is expected to be reduced by 0.2%. Traders should follow those two releases they will define the nation's currency tend for the day.
Yesterday was not a good trading day for the Euro. The 15 Nation currency fell against most of it counterparts following the release of the negative German unemployment data and the hawkish comments from the American Fed about inflation expectations that should increase in the US.
The increase of unemployed residents it the major country in the Euro-Zone with a 4K increase compared to a previous fall of 4K last month pushed the EUR down to a session low of 1.5545 against the USD. The EUR's bearishness was further caused by Consumer Confidence that fell by 3 points more than forecasted to -15, reinforcing fear over sharp slowdown in the economy.
Looking ahead, the most important economic news to be released today will be the German Retails Sales, a strong sign for domestic behavior. If the predictions will be correct, this datum should cause the Euro to recover some of it losses. The other release that will be followed closely is the CPI Flash Estimate, which is expected to reach a 3.5% from a previous 3.3% in the last month. This result might add to a major difference between the Euro-zone and US interest rates. This in return could strengthen of the Euro against the U.S. Dollar.
The JPY fell sharply against the USD yesterday, reaching its lowest price in the last three month after the American GDP data was released and helped by higher returns on bonds as traders keep seeking riskier assets. During late trading, the Yen was traded against the USD at 105.55, moving close to its three peak month of 105.87.
From the Japanese economy yesterday, Japan's disappointing inflation reading was released with a value of 0.9% compared to 1.2% in March. This resulted mostly due to temporary suspension of subsidies in the gasoline sector and a hike in retail prices that was caused in order to deal with rising material and energy costs. Also the unemployment rate rose to 4.0% in April mainly caused by job cuts in the construction, wholesale and retail sales sectors added to a higher cost of basic materials. There was also positive news for the JPY as Industrial Production did fall by 0.3% in April due to reduction in the Japanese factories' production, but this was less than forecasted as there a little more demand for goods from the U.S. and certain areas in Europe
As for today the only indicator coming from Asian Market is the Housing Starts that came in at a reduction of 8.7%. It is expected that the JPY will experiment another volatile session against most of its counterparts, based on economic data that will come from the Yen's counterparts.
The pair is in the middle of a strong bearish corrective move which seems to have some more steam in it. It looks as if there isn't any bullish sentiment to indicate even the slightest corrective move, and the bearish steam appears to be blowing at full strength. It appears that going short still looks like the right choice today.
The Hourlies and the daily chart are showing that the pair does not have a distinct direction. 4 hour chart indicates that the moderate bearish price movement continues within the wide bearish channel which still has yet to be breached. The 4 hour chart RSI is floating near the 50 level and the Slow Stochastic also does not deliver any specific signs. Forex traders are advised to wait for a clearer signs on the hourlies before entering the market.
The pair has been quite choppy in the past two days yet no clear direction was seen. The daily chart is showing bullish signals as the 4 hour chart is still quite bearish. The very wide doji formation on the daily chart indicates that a break might be imminent, so traders are advised to wait for the breach and swing.
This pair is in the midst of a strong uptrend however it is slowly appearing to be leveling out. The hourlies are showing mixed signals. The 4 hour chart is showing that a bearish correction is imminent, while the dailies are showing that there is still some more room for the uptrend. Traders advised to wait for a clearer signal on the hourlies before entering the market.
The Wild Card
This commodity is giving a strong bearish signal on the 4 H and daily chart. The negatively sloped RSI and Momentum support this bearish notion. The Slow Stochastic is also giving a strong signal that this pair's next move will probably be bearish. Therefore this gives forex traders the perfect opportunity to catch an early downward correction on an early stage.
|14:10||USD||FOMC Member Lacker Speaks||-||-||-|
|14:30||USD||Non-Farm Employment Change||215K||220K||173K|
|14:30||USD||Average Hourly Earnings||m/m||0.2%||0.2%||0.3%|