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Tuesday, 21 Sep 2010
Markets Cautious Ahead of FOMC Meeting Statements
The Dollar is under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting statements later today, as the possibility of further quantitative easing measures by the Fed weigh on the greenback.
USD - Markets Await the FOMC Meeting Statements
The U.S Dollar fell against most counterparts Monday over concerns ahead of today's Federal Reserve meeting. Speculations regarding another round of economic stimulus put investors in a cautious mood. The FOMC meeting minutes has overshadowed lingering Euro-Zone sovereign-debt issues, allowing the EUR and other counterparts to advance versus the USD as the possibility of additional asset purchasing programs weighed on the Dollar.
The U.S. Dollar did make gains on the U.K Pound, gaining around 0.5%, after Bank of England lending data measuring broad money supply for July was flat and mortgage approvals dropped to the lowest level since April 2009.
Investors were exercising caution ahead of an FOMC announcement and most currencies remained within narrow ranges. While it is not expected that more quantitative easing programs will be announced, there is the possibility the Fed will surprise the markets and be more proactive.
While the FOMC statement is the most highly anticipated news release for today, traders should also follow the release of the Building Permits and Housing Starts, both due at 12:30 GMT. The housing market remains one of the most important and highly followed indicators as a measure of economic recovery.
EUR - Renewed Sovereign Debt Concerns Weigh on EUR
The single currency came under modest pressure at the end of last week as worries about European sovereign debt increased. The EUR's strength will be further tested this week with Irish and Portuguese debt auctions Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
The Pound fell against the EUR and the greenback after a report showed mortgage approvals dropped to the lowest level since April 2009. The GBP declined versus all of its major counterparts as signs the U.K.'s housing market weakened, threatened to undermine the country's recovery from the recession.
Late Monday, the EUR was at $1.3064 from $1.3039 from late Friday and at 111.96 Yen from 112.89 Yen. The U.K. Pound was at $1.5547 from $1.5626.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading within a tight range and is likely to remain between $1.30 and $1.31 ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes.
JPY - The AUD at a 2 year high
A Japanese holiday Monday kept Yen trading light as investors still keep an eye out for more Japanese intervention.
The Australian Dollar, a growth linked currency, gained more than 1% against the greenback. Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens's strong assessment of the Australian economy boosted the AUD higher versus the Dollar. The hawkish remarks lifted expectations of an impending interest rate hike boosting the currency.
The Australian Dollar Monday hit a series of two-year highs, topping out at $0.9495 from $0.9372 late Friday.
Crude Oil - Crude Recovers on Rising Equities
Crude Oil futures settled higher Monday as rising U.S. equities boosted optimism about the economic outlook. Light, sweet Crude for October delivery settled $1.20 higher at $74.86 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as high as $75.45 earlier in the session. Spot crude is currently trading around $76 a barrel. The October crude contract is due to expire at the end of trading today.
Future economic growth and demand remain the main drivers behind oil prices. For today the focus will be on economic data as well as comments from the Federal Reserve. With Oil Inventories remaining high, the strength of the U.S economy is the most valuable tool to gauge future oil demand.
The EUR/USD cross has experienced a bullish trend for the past week. However, it seems that this trend may be coming to an end. For example, the daily chart's Stochastic Slow signals that a bearish reversal is imminent. A downward trend today is also supported by the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic. Going short with tight stops may turn out to pay off today.
There is a bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicating a bearish correction might take place in the nearest future. The downward direction on the hourly chart's Slow Stochastic also supports this notion. When the downward breach occurs, going short with tight stops appears to be preferable strategy.
The 4-hour chart is showing mixed signals with its Slow Stochastic fluctuating at the neutral territory. However, a bearish cross forming on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic implies that downwards correction might take place in the nearest time frame. Going short with tight stops might be the right strategy today.
The typical range trading on the hourly chart continues. The daily chart Slow Stochastic is floating in neutral territory. However, the 4-hour Chart's RSI is already floating in the oversold territory indicating that a bullish correction might take place in the nearest future. Going long with tight stops might be the right strategy today.
The Wild Card
Gold prices rose significantly in the last week and peaked at $1283 an ounce. However, the daily charts' RSI is floating in an overbought territory suggesting that a recent upwards trend is loosing steam and a bearish correction is impending. This might be a good opportunity for forex traders to enter the trend at a very early stage.