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Wednesday, 23 Feb 2011
NZD Sees Slight Correction in Overnight Session
Following yesterday's devastating earthquake in New Zealand, the NZD/USD dropped close to 200 pips, reaching as low as 0.7430 before staging a slight correction in the Asian session. The pair is currently trading just above the 0.7500 level. Meanwhile the price of crude oil remains close to a 30-month high due to the widespread unrest in Libya.
USD - Dollar Remains Bearish Against Franc and Yen
The US dollar continued to fall against the safe haven yen and Swiss franc in overnight trading, as the widespread political unrest in Libya has driven investors away from riskier currencies. Confidence in the pace of the global economic recovery has been severely dampened, causing the dollar to drop against several of its main currency rivals. The USD/JPY has fallen almost 75 pips from yesterday's high of 83.40. Currently the pair is trading around the 82.60 level. The USD/CHF has dropped well over 100 pips in the last 24 hours, and is currently trading around the 0.9370 level.
Turning to today, a lack of significant news out of the US means the dollar is forecasted to remain bearish. That being said, traders will want to pay attention to the US Existing Home Sales figure, set to be released at 15:00 GMT. Analysts are predicting today's figure to be slightly below last month's. If true, investor confidence in the US economic recovery may remain low, and the greenback could take further losses in afternoon trading.
In addition, traders will want to pay attention to any news out of Libya, as the conflict there continues to impact investor attitudes toward the current state of the global economy. Further unrest in the Middle East is likely to cause the dollar to tumble further.
EUR - EUR Once Again Above 1.3700 against Dollar
Hawkish comments from the European Central Bank yesterday continued to boost the euro against the US dollar during the Asian trading session. The EUR/USD is once again trading above the 1.3700 level, up from 1.3650 early last night.
While the euro has moved up against the dollar, it has remained largely bearish against the Swiss franc. Investors worried about the current state of the global economic recovery have turned to the CHF as of late, enhancing the currency's safe haven appeal. The EUR/CHF dropped well over 100 pips yesterday before staging a slight upward correction. Currently the pair is trading right around the 1.2830 level.
Today, EUR traders will want to pay attention to a speech from ECB President Trichet scheduled to take place at 17:00 GMT. Any comments from Trichet regarding a future euro-zone interest rate hike may cause investors to shift their assets toward riskier currencies and boost the euro as a result.
JPY - Yen Sees Small Gains against USD during Asian Session
The USD/JPY dropped over 30 pips during the Asian session, as investors appear to be flocking to the yen as a safe haven currency amid the recent turmoil in Libya. It appears that as long as the recent wave of unrest in the Middle East continues, safe haven currencies like the yen are likely to remain bullish. The USD/JPY is currently trading around the 82.60 level, down from 82.90 earlier tonight.
Today, yen traders will want to pay attention to any news regarding the ongoing conflict in Libya. Investors are likely to remain with the yen until some semblance of order is brought to that country. Furthermore, the US Existing Home Sales is forecasted to come in slightly below last month's figure. If true, the yen could see more gains.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Remains Close to Record High
Investor fears that crude oil supplies could be damaged as a result of the recent wave of political turmoil in Libya drove the commodity to a 30-month high in trading yesterday. After falling slightly during the evening, the price of oil began to go up once again during the overnight session, and is currently trading around $95.75 a barrel.
Today, oil traders will want to pay attention to any news out of Libya. Analysts are largely in agreement that unless some measure of order is brought to the country, the price of crude oil is likely to remain at its current high. Until investors are confident that stockpiles in the Middle East are secure, prices are unlikely to come down.
The Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart has crossed into the overbought zone indicating that a bearish correction is likely to occur. In addition, a bearish cross has formed on the daily chart's Stochastic Slow. Going short may be the preferred strategy for today.
The daily chart's MACD has formed a bearish cross, indicating that downward pressure is likely to occur in the near future. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index on the hourly charts are in neutral territory. Traders may want to take a wait and see approach for this pair today.
The Williams Percent Range on the 4-hour chart has crossed into the oversold region, indicating that bullish movement could occur in the near future. This theory is supported by the Relative Strength Index on the 8-hour chart. Opening long positions may pay off for this pair today.
A bullish cross on the daily chart's Slow Stochastic is indicating that upward movement could occur later today. The Relative Strength Index is also in oversold territory. Traders will want to open long positions for this pair today.
The Wild Card
The Williams Percent Range on the 8-hour chart is in oversold territory. In addition, the daily chart's Stochastic Slow has formed a bullish cross, indicating upward movement is likely to occur. Now may be a great time for forex traders to open up long positions before the upward breach occurs.
|06:30||EUR||French Final Non-Farm Payrolls||q/q||-0.1%||0.1%||-|
|14:30||USD||Crude Oil Inventories||1.4M||-||-|
|17:01||USD||10-y Bond Auction||2.80|2.5||*||-|
|18:00||USD||Federal Budget Balance||-10.4B||-223.2B||-|
|20:00||NZD||Official Cash Rate||2.50%||2.50%||-|
|20:00||NZD||RBNZ Press Conference||*||*||*|
|20:00||NZD||RBNZ Rate Statement||*||*||*|
|20:00||AUD||RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement||*||*||*|
|23:50||JPY||Core Machinery Orders||m/m||-15.7%||7.3%||-|
|00:00||AUD||MI Inflation Expectations||2.3%||*||-|
|00:01||GBP||BoE Quarterly Bulletin||*||*||*|
|00:01||GBP||RICS House Price Balance||53%||52%||-|
|01:10||NZD||RBNZ Gov Wheeler Speaks||*||*||*|