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Thursday, 28 May 2009
Positive Economic Data from the U.S. Pushes Up Dollar and Oil
The U.S. Dollar and Crude Oil experienced much bullishness in yesterday's trading. The Dollar reacted positively to decent existing Home Sales data and Timothy Geithner's optimistic speech regarding the U.S. economy. This helped the Dollar record a correction against most of its major currency pairs. Crude Oil also reacted positively to the news, helping the "black gold" extend its bullish run.
USD - Dollar Rises on Positive Economic Data
The Dollar rallied yesterday against most of its major counterparts after data suggesting the slowdown in the U.S. housing market has bottomed out gave support to the U.S. currency as a safe-haven. The Dollar has been sold off recently partially due to growing optimism about the outlook for the U.S. economy. The USD finished yesterday's trading session 150 pips higher against the EUR at the1.3819 level.
The major economic event that came out of the U.S yesterday was the Existing Home Sales data release. Home resales in the U.S. probably rose in April as foreclosure auctions and improved affordability spurred bargain hunters. Moreover, record-low mortgage rates, tax credits and falling prices may keep boost demand of unsold homes. In turn, a pickup in sales may help stem the slump in property values, which is key to shoring up household finances and construction as the economy begins to emerge from the recession.
The Dollar also extended its gains against the EUR yesterday after an auction of fresh five-year Treasury debt attracted solid demand, easing fears that U.S. deficits have soured foreigner's appetite for U.S. assets.
USD trading will be interesting today as important economic data is expected to be released. From 12:30 GMT a series of economic indicators will be released, starting with Core Durable Goods figures, Unemployment Claims and the New Home Sales. Surprisingly, almost all of these releases are expected to be higher than their previous figures, meaning the USD could continue to show further bullishness today. Traders should stay close to the market today, as there is a strong chance to capitalize on the fluctuations which will likely follow these releases.
EUR - The EUR Loses Momentum
The EUR lost momentum during yesterday's trading session, correcting the sharp gains against the Dollar and JPY seen last week. This was following comments by a European Central Bank policymaker suggesting further Interest Rate cuts could not be ruled out, and profit-taking after a rally last week hurt the European currency. By yesterday's close, the 16 nation currency fell sharply against the USD, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.3819. The EUR experienced similar behavior against the JPY and closed at 1.3300.
However, the Pound Sterling was the biggest mover amongst the majors, propelled higher by receding pessimism about the UK economy and financial sector. This was boosted by a general move into riskier assets as equity markets rose after a pick-up in U.S. consumer confidence. The Pound outperformed the EUR, hitting $1.60 for the first time in almost seven months as investors continued to pare back the large bets against the currency built up after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last year.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the Euro-Zone is the German Unemployment Change at 8:00 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to slightly increase from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the EUR in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow the CBI Realized Sales figures coming out of Britain at 10:00 GMT, and the Unemployment Claims figures coming out of the U.S. at 12:30 GMT as these results may set the EUR's main currency crosses going into next week.
JPY - Yen Experiences Mixed Results against the Majors
The Yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus its major currency pairs as investors chose the Dollar over the Yen for a safe-haven trade. The JPY fell against the USD and closed around 95.25. However, the Japanese Yen rose almost 40 pips versus the EUR, closing at 133.00.
The major economic event that came out of Japan yesterday was the Retail Sales figures. Retail Sales fell for an eighth month in April as worsening job prospects and declining wages deterred shoppers. The deep recession is spreading to households, whose outlays account for more than half of the economy. Japan will struggle to return to a sustainable growth path as long as companies from Toyota Company keep cutting jobs to minimize losses.
Crude Oil - Crude Oil Approaches the $63 Price Level
Crude Oil prices experienced another day of appreciation as the oft-traded commodity nearly hit $63 during yesterday's trading session. This has been compounded by a weaker Dollar in recent weeks, causing investors to flee to commodities such as Crude Oil. Furthermore, if the U.S. continues to publish more positive economic news, and if the American government continues to be aggressive in tackling the current financial crisis, then Crude prices may hit $75 by the 4th quarter of 2009.
Expectations that consumers may once again want more Oil when the recession bottoms out have also fueled the rally, with traders watching the stock market for economic telltales. There is a reasonable possibility that Oil prices will continue to be bullish going into next week, providing that the economic situation of the leading economies continues to rapidly improve.
The pair has experienced high volatility in the past day. The 1-day oscillator fails to show a clear direction for the pair. However, the 1 hour and 1 day chart's RSI signals that the pair is set for some bullish momentum today. Going long with tight stops could turn out to be a good strategy today.
The 4-hour and 1 day chart's Slow Stochastic indicates that the pair is set for bearish behavior today. However, the 1-hour, 4-hour and 1 day chart's RSI backs bullish momentum for the near future. Waiting until the signals are clearer may be a wise choice until entering this pair.
The pair has experienced much bullish behavior in the past week. The 4-hour and daily chart's Slow Stochastic indicates that a bearish cross is imminent. However, the 1 day chart's RSI shows that there is still much bullish momentum for the upcoming day. Going long with tight stops may be the correct pick for today.
In the past several weeks the pair seems to have been oversold. Therefore, the pair's behavior in the past few days points to a bullish correction. The 1-hour and 1 day chart's Slow Stochastic points to a continuation of a short-medium term bullish correction. It may be a wise choice to enter a popular trend as the pair could surpass the 1.1000 mark in the foreseeable future.
The Wild Card
Crude Oil is currently undergoing a bullish correction as it approaches $65 a barrel. The pair is approaching the upper boarder of the chart's 1 day Bollinger Bands. The bullish trend is likely to continue as the commodity approaches the 70 line on the 1 day chart's RSI. Entering this popular trend now seems to be a good option today for forex traders.
|09:30||GBP||Net Lending to Individuals m/m||3.3B||3.2B||2.2B|
|09:30||GBP||M4 Money Supply||m/m||0.0%||0.5%||0.1%|
|10:00||EUR||CPI Flash Estimate||y/y||-0.2%||-0.5%||-0.6%|
|13:30||USD||Advance GDP Price Index||q/q||1.4%||0.9%||-|
|13:30||USD||Employment Cost Index||q/q||0.7%||0.6%||-|
|15:00||USD||Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment||98.2||98.5||-|
|15:00||USD||Revised UoM Inflation Expectations||2.4%||-||-|