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Wednesday, 14 Jul 2010
Risk Taking Still Predominant Trend for Second Day Straight
Risk taking took over the marketplace yesterday, as the euro hit a two-month high against the U.S. dollar. A solid day for the global stock market as well as a successful bill auction in Greece, were the main factors causing investors to dump their safe-haven assets in favor of more volatile currencies and commodities.
USD - USD Continues to Fall Against Its European Counterparts
Following the most recent return to risk taking among investors, the dollar fell against most of its main currency rivals, including the U.K. pound and euro. While an increase in the stock market is being cited as the main reason for the dollar's decline, it is also worth noting that the U.S. Trade Balance figure came in below expectations yesterday. Furthermore, strong U.K. CPI and German Economic Sentiment figures helped bring the greenback lower.
GBP/USD has shot up around 200 pips in the last 24-hours. Although a moderate correction has taken place, the pair appears to be holding around the 1.5200 level going into today's trading. EUR/USD hit a 2-month high in trading yesterday. The pair has risen around 175 pips over the last day, and is currently at the 1.2720 level.
Today, USD traders will want to watch out for several U.S. economic indicators that are likely to create market volatility. The Core Retail Sales, as well as the Retail Sales reports are set to be released at 12:30 GMT. Both are forecasted to show negative figures and could negatively impact the dollar. At the same time, should either figure unexpectedly come in above 0%, the greenback may receive a boost in afternoon trading. At 18:00 GMT, the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its latest meeting minutes. This usually provides investors with a solid indication about where the U.S. economy currently stands. USD could experience some volatility depending on the statement.
EUR - Euro Continues to Gain on Safe-Haven Dollar and Yen
Following a significant jump in the global stock market yesterday, the euro made substantial gains on most of its main currency rivals. EUR/USD hit a 2-month high before making a slight downward correction. Currently the pair is trading around the 1.2720 level. Against the yen, the euro moved up well over 200 pips during the last 24 hours. Currently EUR/JPY is trading steadily around the 113.10 level.
Today, traders will want to pay attention a number of U.S. news events, as well as several European ones. Euro-zone CPI and Industrial Production figures, set to be released at 09:00 GMT, are forecasted to come in above last month's levels. If this is indeed the case, investor confidence in the global economic recovery is likely to increase further. This would likely elevate the euro against the dollar, yen and British pound. Furthermore, several U.S. economic indicators are predicted to come in below last month's figures. Should the American economy show further signs of deterioration, the dollar will likely continue to suffer against the euro as a result.
JPY - Yen Tumbles Following Gains in the Stock Market
JPY fell against virtually all of its major rivals throughout the day yesterday, and in overnight trading. The USD/JPY has gone up some 80 pips over the last day, while GBP/JPY rose an astonishing 270 pips during the past 24-hours. The reason behind the Japanese currency's drop is largely the gains made on the global stock market. As investor confidence in the global economic recovery increases, safe-haven currencies like the dollar and yen typically drop as a result. As long as the stock market continues to see gains, traders can expect the yen to drop against more volatile currencies.
Today, the JPY value will largely be determined by U.K. and euro-zone economic indicators. Traders will want to pay attention the U.K. Claimant Count Change as well as European industrial production figures. Both are forecasted to show improvement over the previous month's results. If analysts' predictions are true, investor confidence will likely continue to rise. In this case, traders can expect the yen to drop further.
OIL - Oil Prices Shoot Up as Investor Confidence Rises
As investor confidence has risen over the last few days, oil prices continue to go up. The price of crude has shot up some 265 pips over the last 24-hours, ahead of today's U.S. inventory report. The weekly report is forecasted to show that U.S. inventories have increased over the last week. Typically this means that demand is low and prices fall as a result.
That being said, oil has seen substantial gains due to the rise in stocks over the last several days. Should indices continue to move up today, traders can expect oil prices to rise as well. Attention should be given to both European and U.S. economic indicators to see where investor sentiment stands throughout the day. Positive data out of Europe will likely lead to higher oil prices.
Yesterday's appreciation in the pair has allowed for a breach of the daily chart's long term downward sloping trend line that began in December of 2009. Supporting the shift in the trend is the positive sloping 20-day and 50-day simple moving average. This signals a shift to the upside for the trend. As such, traders should be trading with the trend and going long.
A false breakout has been displayed on the daily chart as the pair previously breached below the rising channel lines beginning on June 8th. Yesterday the pair broke higher to the resistance level of 1.5240 which brings the pair back into the channel to confirm the false breakout. The pair could target the next resistance levels of 1.5380 and 1.5520 respectively.
The pair is testing the 89.15 resistance level and is showing strong momentum to the upside as the Relative Strength Index (14) is sloping sharply higher. A breach above the resistance level could take the pair higher to 89.75 where a reversal to the downside may be possible.
The sharp downward trend that began in early June is seeing some consolidation near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the downtrend's peak. The pullback to this level makes for a good entry back into the downtrend as today's daily high ran into resistance at the 10-day simple moving average line. The next price target is the lows from this week at 1.0480.
The Wild Card
Spot crude oil prices continue to rise following the buy signal displayed on the daily chart. A cross of the 5-day simple moving average above the 20-day simple moving average could signal the beginning of a new bullish trend. CFD traders may want to enter long with a target of $80 in the near term.