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Thursday, 28 Feb 2008

The USD Continues To Be Under Pressure.

Daily Trenddowndownupdowndownup
Weekly Trendupupdowndownupup

Economic News


Yesterday, the USD fell to a record low vs. the EUR on expectations that the Fed will cut Interest Rates aggressively, despite stubborn inflation. Momentum in the EUR/USD pushed the pair through the closely watched 1.50 level and quickly surpassed 1.51 in the same session. The U.S. currency traded at the 1.5108 level vs. the EUR at 12:45 p.m. in Tokyo, after earlier touching the 1.5144 level.
The greenback retreated after Bernanke said that the Fed will act in a timely manner to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks. The Fed has lowered benchmark overnight interest rates to 3% from 5.25% since September and financial markets expect policy makers to lower them by a further 0.5 percentage point at their next meeting on March 18.
Meanwhile, the bad news out of the U.S. continued to mount. Data out yesterday revealed that Durable Goods Orders fell 5.3% in January, the most in 5 months, compared with the 4% forecast. The report added fears of a U.S. economic slowdown at a time when rising Oil prices are pushing prices higher, leaving the Fed with the dilemma of whether growth or inflation is potentially the bigger problem.
Looking ahead to today's U.S. calendar, the Preliminary GDP results will be released at 13:30 GMT, along with Unemployment Claims data for the month of January.
Volatility will likely continue across domestic financial markets as today's fundamental data holds potential to drive sharp moves in the U.S. currency. The USD will probably trade around its record lows against the EUR during the day and may even record new lows as the week progresses. Look for new lows and technical trends as opportunities for profits.


The EUR advanced yesterday vs.10 of the 16 most-active currencies in the past 5 days after the ECB policy makers expressed concerns that inflation in the Euro zone may quicken. The ECB officials also indicated that there is no change in their hawkish stance on Interest Rates. Therefore the EUR is likely to strengthen.
The EUR also continues to benefit from the faulty condition of the USD. Besides the overwhelming strength and confidence being shown by the currency, the European economic forecast continues to release positive data. Yesterday's German Import Price Index printed at 0.8%, much higher than the forecasted 0.2%, while the British GDP remained stable at 0.6%
Analysts predict that the Fed will lower the Interest Rate target by at least another 0.5 percentage point at next month's FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, the EUR could test 1.52 -53 levels in the short-term. The Fed has already lowered its benchmark overnight lending rates by 2.25 percentage points to 3% since last September, while the ECB has kept its main rate at 4%. Given the rate difference between the Europe and the U.S., the EUR will stay high as long as the BOE will keep its Interest Rates unchanged.
Today, ECB President Trichet is expected to deliver a speech at 14:15 GMT in the Netherlands. As head of the central bank's governing body, which is responsible for setting the Euro zone's short term Interest Rate, his speeches can sometimes cause market volatility as traders react to clues regarding future monetary policy.
Today, the EUR is expected to trade around its current high levels, and if the U.S. fundamental data disappoints, the EUR might add another 100 pips.


The JPY rose against the EUR and 14 of the 16 most-active currencies as Asian stocks fell, encouraging investors to reduce holdings of higher-yielding assets funded with loans in Japan. It rose to 160.51 level against the EUR from 161.00 in New York yesterday.
With stocks falling, the JPY is being propelled by risk reduction among investors. Japan's currency may move between 106 and 107 per USD for the rest of this week Japanese retail sales rose 1.5% in January from a year earlier, marking the sixth straight month of increases, according to the government report.
There are several news releases expected to come from the Japanese market tonight, as the first will be the Manufacturing PMI at 23:15 GMT. With a forecast of 52.0, we can see that there is a positive view towards Japan's growth in the manufacturing sector and for its economy in general. Slightly later at 23:30 GMT the Core CPI is expected to be released with a forecast of 0.9%, and a previous release of 0.8%, we can see that Japan's inflation level should continue to be inline with expectation, proving that the journey towards a stronger and more stable economy continues full steam ahead.
It appears that the JPY will continue to gain against most currencies in the near future, as it is consistently showing strong data and solid monetary policy, with the majority of the economic forecasts seeing the continuation of growth for 2008.


Technical News


After peaking at the all time high of 1.5140 the pair now shows signs of bearish sentiment on the 4 hour chart. The daily chart still remains very bullish, which means that once the corrective move will consume its momentum, the bullish move will continue. Buying on dips might be a good choice of action before the weekend.


The cable failed to breach through the 1.9950 level, which is a strong resistance and a key Fibonacci level. The bearish cross on the daily chart indicates on an upcoming corrective move that might take the cable below the 1.9750 on the local level. The 4 hour chart is giving mixed signals, which means that Forex traders must wait for a clear bearish signal on the hourly level before making an entry.


The pair has made an aggressive bearish move within the flat channel of the daily chart, and is now approaching strong support. The 1 hour chart is showing local consolidation around the 106.20 level, and the bullish cross on the 4 hour chart is indicating that moderate bullish momentum is starting to form. Buying on dips could be a good strategy today.


After the pair breached the strong key level of 1.0750, and validated the bearish move with a full bar beneath the breach level, it appears that the momentum is stronger than ever. Both the daily and the hourly studies are very bearish and a target price of 1.580 appears to be quite possible.

The Wild Card

Crude Oil

The 4 hour chart is showing a fresh upwards channel formation, as Oil now breached through the bottom barrier. forex traders must pay close attention to a possible break through the 99.00 level, as it is now a key level that might take crude oil to a very deep abyss. If a break will not occur, a moderate float within the channel is expected.

Current Time: 11/30 23:54 GMT
# Time $€£¥ Event Per. Prev. Fore. Act. Imp.
22:45NZD+ Overseas Trade Index q/q1.3%-2.5%-1
23:30AUD+ AIG Manufacturing Index50.2--1
USD+ Total Vehicle Sales18.2M 18.0M-1
00:50JPY+ Capital Spending y/y5.6%2.3%-1
01:30AUD+ Building Approvals m/m2.2%-2.4%-3
01:30AUD+ Current Account-19.0B-16.6B-3
02:35JPY+ Final Manufacturing PMI52.852.8-1
04:30AUD+ Cash Rate2.00%2.00%-5
04:30AUD+ RBA Rate Statement---5
04:45JPY+ 10-y Bond Auction0.32|2.8--1
06:30AUD+ Commodity Prices y/y-19.8%--1
07:45CHF+ GDPq/q0.2%--1
08:00GBP+ Bank Stress Test Results---5
08:00GBP+ BoE Financial Stability Report---3
08:00GBP+ FPI ---1
08:30CHF+ Employment Level4.24M4.24M-3
09:15CHF+ Retail Sales y/y0.2%0.4%-3
09:15EUR+ Spanish Manufacturing PMI51.351.9-3
09:30CHF+ Manufacturing PMI50.750.8-1
09:45EUR+ Italian Manufacturing PMI54.154.3-1
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