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Monday, 11 Feb 2008
UK's PPI Input & Trade Balance On Tap.
The greenback began the week on a slight downward trend following some concerning news from the G7 over the weekend. After a meeting of the leading industrial nations in Tokyo, the G7, without specifically singling out a specific country voiced its growing concerns over the trembling global market. The US economy, while not being the sole catalyst has magnified the situation that much more, as the housing and credit crisis in America continues to press on. These issues coupled with the uncertainty of financial markets contributed to losses for the dollar against its major rivals as the new week began. The greenback was down nearly 25 pips in early Monday trading against the EUR at 1.4529 following a positive showing on Friday which saw the currency dip below the 1.45 EUR/USD support level ahead of the G7 meeting over the weekend. Similar results were seen against the Sterling, and while not nearly as significant, the move still concerns some dollar enthusiasts as most good performances by the dollar lately have not lasted very long. With another week of essential economic data on tap, many investors expect a bearish dollar trend to develop.
The US is expected to release a batch of important economic data that will likely map the near future for the dollar. Retails Sales, Trade Balance, TIC Net Long-Term Transactions and Consumer Sentiment are only some of the more standout figures expected to affect trading throughout the currency market. Thursday, traders should expect a speech from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, which according to the results from the aforementioned data, could dictate the reaction by the Fed as it tries to ease pressure off the greenback.
The dollar faces significant risk over the next week or so if it can't pose a big enough rally, as the EUR, Sterling and JPY will continue to eat away at gains made at the end of last week. Barring a standout result from economic data and consumer confidence from the US, the dollar could face another costly drop this week, especially with the ongoing rise of gold prices.
Today's US calendar has no economic data scheduled for release.
The EUR spent most of last week fighting off a string of negative data and rising concerns of a heavy slowdown in the Eurozone economy. As production numbers throughout the major European nations continued to be released the EUR managed to slip over 300 points against its staunch rival the greenback before ending Friday trading just above 1.45.
The weakening state of the Eurozone economy has convinced many that ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet will cut interests rates to ease growth related pressure. This would be a move in a different direction as the hawkish stance held by the ECB had led many to believe that if any action was taken, it would have been a rate hike.
The week ahead will produce a set of economic data that should help the EUR recover from last week's turbulent performance. French Nonfarm Employment, French and German GDP, Industrial Production, German ZEW Economic Sentiment are all on tap, as the week will begin with today's release of French Industrial Production. As data is expected to disappoint, two separate speeches by ECB President Trichet later this week should give us an idea how serious the Eurozone slowdown is.
Despite the fact that U.S. stocks continued to weaken and last Fridays' Eco
Watchers Survey printed at weaker than expected, carry trades have since stabilized. Overall, the JPY finished off trading last week 0.2% higher at 107.32, as investors looked across the water to Europe and the U.S. to find more attractive returns on their money. According to the latest Tankan survey most Japanese corporations forecast the value of USD/JPY in 2008 to be at around 113.00. With the pair now trading at 107.30 those hedges are deep in the red indicating that profit margins for exporters will suffer.
Today, the Japanese market will be closed due to the National Foundation Day.
Currency markets are expected to be relatively quiet with Japan on a holiday, and there probably will not be too much volatility in the wake of Friday's Interest Rate Announcement and the BoJ Monthly Report. In the week's Japanese economic calendar, we will also see the release of GDP numbers as well as several industrial figures.
An ascending triangle structure is forming on the daily chart which implies a bullish comeback with a first target price of 1.4623.
The ascending triangle may offer even more significance as the top barrier is located at 1.4878 and the Slow Stochastic was crossed at 12, indicating that there is more room for the bullish trend.
The daily chart is bullish as the Slow Stochastic crossed at 10 and the RSI shows a positive slope. The next resistance level is located at 1.9568, and the next support level is at flat 1.9400. If the cable drops sharply beyond that level, a strong bearish move might be in place.
The trendless tight range the pair has been going through continues with no hint of a distinct direction. The 4 hour chart is indicating that locally the move within the channel is bearish. Traders must wait for a significant break on any side in order to swing back in.
The 4 hour chart is showing a classic reversal formation in the form of an upwards channel. The channel is supported by a cross in the slow stochastic which indicates that the bullish move might be quite imminent. Going long appears to be the right move today.
The Wild Card
There is a very distinct downwards channel forming on the 4 hour chart as the pair now floats around its upper level. The RSI and slow stochastic are floating in the mid section which indicates that the next move would be towards the bottom of the channel. This could be a great opportunity for forex traders to enter the market on a short position with a chance that a bearish break beyond the channel will unleash an even stronger move.