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Wednesday, 14 Sep 2011
US Economic Optimism Rises in September
Data on American economic optimism yesterday signaled an uptick in outlook from the previous month, as reported by IBD/TIPP. The news has done little to the forex market, however, though it could ripple through longer-term analyses on US financial markets should further dips in industry be reported.
USD - Dollar Remains Strong as Debt Auctions Weigh on Euro Zone
The US dollar (USD) was seen trading mildly bullish Tuesday as investors weighed the impact bond auctions in Greece and Italy will have on the euro zone. A sudden wave of risk aversion last week seemed to have helped the greenback surge, and pessimism about sovereign debt in Europe is supporting this pressure. The EUR/USD seems to be floating closer to 1.33 as technical pressures also begin to mount.
Data on American economic optimism yesterday also signaled an uptick in outlook from the previous month, as reported by IBD/TIPP. The news has done little to the forex market, however, though it could ripple through longer-term analyses on US financial markets should further dips in industry be reported. Manufacturing has been forecast to slump moderately going into the third quarter as most indicators revealed decreased demand. How this will affect the greenback in the weeks ahead is so far undetermined.
As for today, there will be a heavy string of US economic releases, with most news focused on retail sales and the producer price index (PPI). Liquidity will likely be much higher in today's afternoon trading as these reports get published. With consumer confidence, inflation, and retail sales in focus this week, the picture on future demand and growth levels is expected to become moderately clarified and this could weigh heavily on currency direction in the short- and mid-term.
GBP - GBP Moving Bullish as Inflation Hits Targets
The Great Britain pound (GBP) is expected to be seen trading with bullish results this week ahead of a slew of reports on the country's manufacturing, housing, and service sectors. Against the US dollar (USD) the pound has actually been trending upwards despite the greenback's bullish moves against its other currency rivals.
A mildly pessimistic sentiment towards investing in the euro at the moment has many investors on edge when considering regional investments. An embattled euro zone is sending financial ripples through its neighbors and some are concerned it could pull growth down across the entire continent. With yesterday's inflationary data out of Britain, this doesn't seem to be the case, at least for the island economy north of Western Europe. Housing data seemed a bit pessimistic, but consumer prices are indeed growing at a healthy rate in the UK.
Sentiment across the region may have turned negative, with many analysts and economists expecting moves towards safety by traders this week, but the GBP could see a solid weathering of this financial storm so long as data remains bullish. Great Britain appears positioned for a relatively better quarter than its southerly neighbors. The pound could see some bullish movement this week as a result of this overall sentiment.
NZD - New Zealand Interest Rates on Tap
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) was seen trading mildly higher versus most other currencies this morning as its value responded to recent challenges with relatively more optimism than some had anticipated. Data in New Zealand has been mixed lately with some indications that inflation is not rising as strongly as in other economies, but perhaps in a good way. Food prices fell 1.3% this month, which could produce bearish pressure on the NZD, but should prove to be a boon for consumers in times of economic stress.
The latest movements of the Kiwi are causing some concerns, however, as many speculators are anticipating a bearish turn following recent surges in risk aversion. With interest rate decisions out later this evening, investors are waiting to see what the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will do. A strengthening Kiwi has benefits for the buying power of the island economy, though its dependence on exports makes a strong NZD unfavorable for longer-term growth in New Zealand's economy.
Oil - Crude Oil Trading Flat in Anticipation of Big Move
Crude Oil prices held steady Tuesday as sentiment appeared to favor a mild uptick in global stocks following reports of monetary moves being made by several central banks. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.
An expected spike in dollar values due to this week's risk sensitive environment has prevented many investors from taking positions on physical assets, creating a consolidation pattern on oil charts, but with the USD's gains not materializing in large enough numbers early this week, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing later in the trading week.
A sharp decline in the value of pair and EUR/USD has put in serious technical damage when it closed below its long term uptrend from May 2010. Both weekly and monthly stochacstics are falling as the pair undergoes a sharp correction. Support comes in at a range of 1.3400-25 from the February low and the 50% Fibonacci retracement from the bullish move that took the pair from the May 2010 low to the May 2011 high. The 61% retracement at 1.3040 is a significant mile marker while long term players may be focused on the January pivot of 1.2875. To the upside the July low of 1.3835 is the initial resistance, followed by the previously trend line which could prove to be resistive as often occurs with broken trend lines and this level is found at 1.3990.
Three weeks of declines and cable has broken below its long term rising trend line from the May 2010 low. The pivot at 1.5780 is a significant support level which coincides with a 38% Fibonacci retracement from the May 2010 to April 2011 move. Below here the GBP/USD has support at the October lows/early January highs of 1.5650 followed by December pivot at 1.5350. Initial resistance may be found at 1.6080 followed by 1.6375 and the late August high of 1.6450.
The yen has been range bound between its all-time low of 75.94 and 78.85 to the upside. Price action in the crosses has been much more volatile. Daily, weekly, and monthly stochastics are mixed and the next major resistance level is found at the post intervention high of 80.20 followed by the long term trend line from the June 2007 high which comes in at 81.00. A lack of support on the daily chart makes it difficult to predict a downside target but the big round number of 75 stands out.
Last week the pair surged higher by almost 13% on the back of the SNB protective floor at 1.20 for the EUR/CHF. The USD/CHF continues to move higher and is now testing its falling trend line from November 2010 which comes in at 0.8890. This level has additional importance as it coincides with the 68% Fibonacci retracement from the November 2010 high to the August low. Both weekly and monthly stochastics are rising and with a break here the pair could extend its gains to the resistance at 0.8945 from the April 1st high. Support comes in at 0.8545 and 0.8250.
The Wild Card
The EUR/JPY has dropped to its lowest level in 10-years as increased risk aversion in the forex markets has strengthened the Japanese yen. This may bring about additional momentum traders as the trend extends itself. Resistance is seen back at 106.25 from the post tsunami low followed by 112.00 and the August 4th post intervention high of 114.15.