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Wednesday, 3 Jun 2009
U.S Economy Awaits ADP Non Farm Employment Figures
The Dollar continued its freefall against all the major currencies despite positive housing data figures from yesterday. Today, at 12:15 GMT, Forex traders will have the ability to enjoy hefty volatility in the market as the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change will be released.
ForexYard also advises its traders to follow the Crude Oil Inventories report, which is scheduled at 14:30 GMT. The rising prices of Crude Oil have become a top issue in financial sectors as of late, and the U.S inventories report should have a large effect on its pricing.
USD - ADP Non Farm Employment Report on Tap - Will USD Weakness Continue?
The dollar dropped against most of its major currency rivals yesterday, as strong U.S. housing sales data reinforced optimism about the health of the global economy, sapping safe-haven demand for the greenback. All good news aside, by yesterday's close, the USD fell sharply against the EUR, pushing the oft-traded currency pair to 1.4310. The dollar experienced similar behavior against the GBP and closed at 1.6588.
The dollar had begun the day staging a modest recovery after Monday's steep drop, but the trend changed quickly as U.S. stocks turned higher, helping to renew the recent rally in higher risk currencies. Analysts said the dollar's failure to recover shows that investors are convinced the we have seen the worst of the global crisis, and only have room to improve, which is encouraging them to buy higher risk currencies and assets.
A leading indicator released yesterday was the Pending Home Sales report. The figure saw its biggest monthly gain in 7.5 years which indicated that the U.S recession was easing. However, it failed to provide strength to the Dollar as investors may be waiting for key data due to be released today to implement their trading strategies.
Looking ahead to today, the most important economic indicator scheduled to be released from the U.S. is the ADP None-Farm Employment Change at 12:15 GMT. Analysts are forecasting this figure to decrease from its previous reading. Traders will be paying close attention to today's announcement as a stronger than expected result may boost the USD in the short-term. Traders are also advised to follow Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony at around 14:00 GMT. This testifies is very important as it is very likely to Impact the Dollar volatility. Traders are advised to watch closely, as this is likely to set the pace of the Dollar going into the rest of the week's trading.
EUR - Will the EUR Hold its Recent Gains?
The EUR was affected by two main things in yesterday's trading; the global stock market rally and mixed feelings ahead of Thursday's Interest Rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). The U.S. stock market rally led investors to buy-back into the EUR, and dropped the Dollar, as investors looked for returns on risky investments in Tuesday's trading.
The EUR appreciated by around 120 pips versus the USD to close at 1.4300 in yesterday's trading. The EUR/GBP pair closed almost unchanged at 0.8631 ahead of Thursday's Interest Rate decisions for both the Euro-Zone and Britain. Overall, the EUR, which for the last few months has been sold by most traders, is seeing these sell-positions unwind and is now making a small recovery. The question now is can EUR bullishness continue versus the Dollar?
Sentiment in the Euro-Zone economy has brightened in the past week following better-than-expected news. The EUR is showing signs of resilience even though there was volatility throughout non-Euro crosses. It will be crucial for traders to identify how the preceding economic indicators from the U.S., Japanese, and other key economies will affect their positions.
JPY - Yen Experiences Mixed Results against Major Currencies
The Yen completed yesterday's trading session with mixed results versus the other major currencies. The JPY was broadly unchanged versus the EUR yesterday and closed its trading session at around the 136.60 level. The JPY also saw bullishness against the USD as it jumped around 70 points and closed at 95.70.
The Bank of Japan needs to keep an eye on the global economy as the Japan's finance minister, Kaoru Yosano, said the country's worst post-war recession has already hit bottom. But a full recovery might not come until early 2010 as manufacturers gradually lift output from very low levels.
Traders today have very little fundamental news emanating from Japan as the only indicator being released is the capital spending report. Analysts forecast the figure to decrease from its previous reading. This indicator typically generates small amounts of volatility. However, the GBP and the USD appear to be clutching the reins of today's market. Traders would be wise to note its future direction as it usually carries a heavy impact on the other currencies.
Crude Oil - Traders Await Crude Oil Inventory Report
Crude oil rebounded from the day's lows, finishing little changed at $68.20, as the dollar weakened against the EUR, bolstering the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment. Oil prices have risen every day since May 21 on snips of moderately good news from manufacturers, home builders and the U.S. government.
Today, the release of crude oil inventory is likely to help determine the market's next direction for Black Gold. Oil inventories have fallen in each of the previous three reports from the Energy Information Administration but remain close to an 18-year high. The result of this was a dramatic increase of commodity prices. A release of a string of positive economic figures could help continue its bullishness. Therefore, traders are advised now to make some profits as the price of Crude Oil is set to remain volatile in the short-medium term.
The pair continued with the bullish trend, as it's now being traded around the 1.4300 level. The 4-hour chart's MACD is reaching the 0.010 level, suggesting that the bullish momentum has more steam in it. Going long seems to be the preferable choice today.
There is a very accurate bullish channel formed on the daily chart as the Cable is now floating in its upper section. Currently, as all oscillators on the 4-hour chart are pointing up, it seems that another bullish session could take place today.
After three failed attempts to breach through the 95.30 level, it appears that the pair has resumed its bullish activity. A bullish breach at the 4-hour chart's Slow Stochastic also supports that notion. Going long with tight stops appears to be the right choice today.
The pair continued its freefall as yesterday it dropped below the 1.0650 level. However, as a bullish cross is taking place on both the 4-hour and the daily charts, it seems that a bullish reversal might take place today.
The Wild Card
Bullish trends were initiated around the $880 level, and have continued with full steam as currently an ounce of gold is valued at $985. Currently, gold is reaching towards a very strong resistant level placed at the $989 level. If the resistant level will be breached, another sharp bullish move might take place. This could be a great opportunity for forex traders to join a very popular trend.