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Tuesday, 23 Aug 2011
US Mortgage Delinquencies Grow in August
Data from the American housing market yesterday signaled an uptick in mortgage delinquencies from the previous month, revealing a slump in the number of households able to pay off their mortgages.
USD - US Dollar Mixed as Speculators Undecided
The US dollar (USD) was seen trading mildly bearish early Monday as traders viewed comments by the Fed as a sign of potentially impending hawkish moves on the policy front. The sudden jolt to risk appetite generated by such movement pushed down on the greenback, but seems to have lifted following fears of bank interventions in Japan and a string of reports out of the euro zone today which could reverse much of the markets recently acquired short-term stability.
Data from the American housing market yesterday also signaled an uptick in mortgage delinquencies from the previous month, revealing a slump in the number of households able to pay off their mortgages. The news has done little to the forex market, however, though it could ripple through longer-term analyses on US capital markets.
As for today, the US economic releases will focus mostly on housing and manufacturing. Today's publications, however, will mainly be euro-centric. Liquidity will likely be higher in today's early trading as several European events are being published in rapid succession. French and German liquidity will be heightened, and Canada will contribute to today's movements with its retail sales reports. Traders will want to pay close attention to today's euro zone data.
EUR - EUR Mixed as Heavy Trading Day Steamrolls Ahead
The euro (EUR) is expected to be seen trading with mixed results this morning ahead of a slew of reports on the euro zone's major economies' manufacturing and service sectors. Against the US dollar (USD) the euro has been seen trading somewhat bearish as the greenback moves upward against its currency rivals.
Traders are looking for a way to balance a renewal of risk aversion with continued shakiness in global markets. A mildly pessimistic sentiment towards investing in the US dollar at the moment has many investors on edge. An embattled euro zone, fending off market bears amid turmoil in its peripheral nations, also looks to be losing ground in financial markets as safe haven assets such as the Swiss franc (CHF) and Japanese yen (JPY) make gains; though central bank interventions in Japan may offset the JPY's gains.
Sentiment across the euro zone has turned negative, with many analysts and economists expecting moves towards safety by traders this week. Any more bearishly-leaning news out of any major global economy will likely pull down on the EUR even further as investors flee risk. With a heavy news day ahead, many traders are anticipating significant data releases to move the market. If today's data continues to reveal negative market directionality, the EUR is likely to remain bearish.
JPY - JPY Beginning to Feel Pressure as Intervention Expected
The Japanese yen (JPY) was seen trading mildly lower versus most other currencies this morning as its value as an international safe haven was being challenged by an air of impending intervention by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Being linked to international risk sentiment, the yen has experienced an expected uptick during a period when shifts away higher yielding assets became prominent. The JPY has been experiencing several long strides lately from the various shifts into riskier assets.
The latest moves of the yen are causing some concerns, however, as many speculators are anticipating another round of intervention by the BOJ. A strengthening yen has benefits for the buying power of the island economy, though its dependence on exports makes a strong yen unfavorable for longer-term growth in Japan's current financial model. As the island currency remains bullish, the pressure begins to mount for the expected bank move to lower its currency strength.
Crude Oil - Oil Prices Holding Steady amid Market Turmoil
Crude Oil prices held steady Monday as sentiment appeared to favor a mild uptick in global stocks following reports of monetary moves being made by several central banks. Data releases out of Europe and the US last week are still driving many investors back into safe-haven assets as many reports suggested a surprise downtick in growth among global industrial output and consumer spending.
An expected dip in dollar values due to this week's risk sensitive environment has helped many investors ram up their long-taking positions on physical assets, but with the USD's losses not materializing in large enough numbers, sentiment appears to have the price of crude oil holding steady. Should Crude Oil sentiment continue to flatten this week, oil prices may reach a decision point which forces a wide swing by mid-week.
The push to 1.4500 found willing offers and the falling resistance line from the May high has kept the pair trading in a relatively defined 500 pip range since late-July. This scenario could change this week as the pair encroaches on the bottom of a triangle pattern that runs underneath the July and August lows at 1.4190. A move below this trading range is favored as both daily and monthly stochastics are declining. A break here could test the rising trend line from May 2010 and may have long term technical ramifications. To the upside last week's high of 1.4515 will serve as initial resistance followed by 1.4700.
Following a failure to move below its 200-day moving average Cable has underwent an impressive run to the 1.66 level. However, three failed attempts to close above the 1.6540 level points to sterling weakness. The pair also looks to be oversold as daily, weekly, and monthly stochastics are all turning lower. An initial move lower could run into support at the 20-day moving average at 1.6370 followed by the August 11th low at 1.6110. A deeper move could test the July low at 1.5780. Should the momentum continue to the upside initial resistance is found at 1.6580 with the most likely target at the April high of 1.6750.
Last week the pair briefly moved below the March low and the 76 yen level but the dollar was quickly bid and the daily candlestick formed a doji. While often a sign of an impending reversal a doji by itself is not enough to change the technical picture. Bias remains to the downside and a close below 76 would signal further declines in the pair. A lack of support on the long term charts makes it problematic to forecast a target but the big round number of 70 yen stands out. Should the doji pattern hold and a reversal ensue; the pair will encounter plenty of selling opportunities with the most likely of entry points found at 78.50, 79.50, and 80.20.
A rebound in the pair made it as high as 0.8015, just above the 50% retracement level from the May to August move. This move looks like it may have more room to run as weekly and monthly stochastics are rolling higher. Additional resistance comes in at the falling trend line from the February high at 0.8150. A break here would target the 61% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8220. However, traders should remember the long term trend is to the downside and support is found at 0.7800 followed by 0.7550.
The Wild Card
Like many of the major currencies the USD/CAD is being traded in a defined range. At the top of the range stands the downward sloping trend line off of the May 2010 high which comes in at 1.0000. To the downside of the range initial support is found at 0.9775. Forex traders should note that a break of this level could take the pair to 0.9640, the 61% Fibonacci retracement level from the late July low to the August high.
|06:00||JPY||Prelim Machine Tool Orders||y/y||40.3%||*||-|
|07:00||EUR||German Trade Balance||18.5B||19.3B||-|
|10:00||GBP||Inflation Report Hearings||*||*||*|
|15:00||GBP||NIESR GDP Estimate||0.8%||*||-|
|23:30||AUD||Westpac Consumer Sentiment||-3.0%||*||-|
|23:50||USD||BSI Manufacturing Index||9.7||11.3||-|
|23:50||JPY||Tertiary Industry Activity||m/m||-0.4%||0.7%||-|
|05:00||JPY||BoJ Monthly Report||*||*||*|