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Thursday, 2 Jul 2009
U.S. Non-Farm Employment Change Data to Drive USD Volatility Today
The forex market is expected to be extremely volatile today, as the U.S. releases the results of the Non-Farm Employment Change at 12:30 GMT. The EUR Minimum Bid Rate at 11:45 GMT and U.S. Unemployment Claims at 12:30 GMT are also expected to dominate trading for the USD, EUR, and GBP crosses. Traders are advised to enter the main currency pairs now in order to profit from risk appetite.
USD - Dollar Plummets on Release of Poor Economic Data
The Dollar index continued its decline yesterday, trading at 79.619, down from 80.179 late Wednesday. The drop followed the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change which showed worse than expected results. The drop was exacerbated by China's request to discuss the issue of a new global currency at next week's G8 Summit in Italy.
Increased risk appetite has been dominating trading lately, despite much pessimistic
economic data. Recent bullishness in the stock markets helped fuel risk appetite among investors, putting further downward pressure on the Dollar. Worse than expected results no longer automatically push investors back to the safety of the Dollar, as risk tolerance remains high on positive equity prices. Furthermore, negative data from the U.S., along with an over-expanding budget deficit and inflation fears have caused concern over the greenback's long term prospects. As a result, this has
further dampened Dollar sentiment.
With several major news releases ahead of the July 4th weekend, including the U.S Non Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate due at 12:30 GMT, and the ECB Press Conference at the same time, Thursday is expected to be a volatile trading day which may intensify the current trends.
EUR - EUR Boosted By Increased Risk Appetite
The EUR continued its advance against the USD yesterday, reaching its highest level in nearly a month. The European currency received an additional boost after the release of better than expected results from German Retail Sales. Since Germany is the largest economy in the Euro-Zone, it tends to have significant effects on EUR movements.
The EUR/USD pair hit as high as $1.4201 after the release of the U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, which showed worse than expected results. However, the EUR/USD finished trading at 1.4115, whilst the the Pound Sterling was at $1.6464 from $1.6449.
Traders should pay close attention to the ECB Press Conference at 12:30 GMT as monetary policy and economic outlook will be discussed. Although the Interest Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 1%, the statement will provide insight to the Bank's new covered-bond purchase program, as well as the progress of the quantitative easing program. This will provide direction for the EUR by possibly extending its recent gains.
JPY - JPY Gains against USD Ahead of Crucial U.S. Data Releases
The Yen gained against the Dollar ahead of the release of the U.S Non Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate which may show that unemployment in the U.S rose to the highest level in 25 years. To a certain extent, this spurred demand for the safety of the JPY. Traders should be aware that the USD/JPY pair will be the main pair to watch today as data is released from the U.S.
The Japanese currency has been suffering recently due to increased optimism and risk appetite among investors, who traded the relatively safe JPY for higher yielding riskier currencies. Although risk tolerance remains high in the market, worse than expected results from the U.S and Euro-Zone may help extend the JPY's gains throughout the day.
Crude Oil - Crude falls Below $70 on Release of Inventories Data
Crude Oil fell by over $2.50, or 5%, to $69.01 a barrel on Wednesday. The drop came after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report showing that Crude Oil Inventories are 18.3% higher than last year. Despite falling inventories in the past 4 weeks, demand continues to be weak, whilst supply remains abundant.
Despite recent gains in the equity markets and the continued weakness of the Dollar, Oil has had difficulties sustaining prices above $72. This is as demand continues to lag and inventories remain high. Today's trading session may provide some boost to Oil prices as U.S unemployment data which is set to be released today may exacerbate the Dollar's recent bearish trend.
The EUR/USD pair experienced much bullishness in yesterday's trading, as it hit the 1.4200 mark. However, the pair has dropped since then, and the pair currently stands at 1.4120. The daily chart shows the pair trading in neutral territory. However, the chart's 4-hour Stochastic Slow and hourly MACD signal that this downward momentum may continue. Going short with tight stops could lead to big profits today.
The cross finished yesterday's trading in neutral territory, and relatively unchanged at 1.6464. If you look at the daily chart's RSI, we can see that the pair is in the overbought territory, and a sharp downward move could occur anytime soon. Entering this trend at an early trade may turn out to pay off as Thursday's trading gets under way.
The pair currently stands at the 96.60 level. It seems that USD/JPY's recent bearishness may be short lived, as the chart's 4-hour RSI indicates that there is still steam left in the pair. Additionally, the chart's daily Stochastic Slow signals that we may be facing an upward trend today. Going long with tight stops may be a wise choice today.
The pair has experienced much volatility in recent days, range trading between the 1.0700 and the 1.0920 levels. The weekly chart's Slow Stochastic signal the pair will go bearish today. Whereas the hourly chart's MACD signals an upward trend to take place for the coming day. Entering the pair when the signals are clearer may turn out to be a wise choice today.
The Wild Card
Crude Oil has been hit badly in recent days, and currently stands at $69.20 a barrel. The daily chart's Stochastic Slow supports a further bearish move for the commodity in today's trading. This is also supported by the daily chart's MACD. Going short with tight stops may turn out to be the safe bet for forex traders today.
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