ANALYSIS-Obama to weigh broad changes in White House team
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Friday September 10, 2010 01:26:20 PM GMT
* Some see need for fresh thinking on Obama staff
* Reshuffle could lay groundwork for Obama re-election bid
* Changes possible on economic team, Geithner seen staying
By Caren Bohan
WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - The likely exit of top aide Rahm Emanuel gives U.S. President Barack Obama the chance to make broader staff changes as his Republican rivals look set for a resurgence in November's congressional elections.
The prospect of Republicans taking control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in the Nov. 2 elections would force Obama to move in a more centrist policy direction as he lays the groundwork for his 2012 re-election bid.
Emanuel, Obama's hard-charging chief of staff, has made no secret that he is considering a run for mayor in his hometown of Chicago, although he has not made a decision yet.
Other personnel changes are expected after the November elections, where Democrats fear a disastrous showing amid voter discontent as the United States emerges slowly from its worst economic downturn since the 1930s with unemployment persistently near 10 percent.
Democratic sources say White House economic adviser Larry Summers may leave sometime within the next several months but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner is likely to stay on.
"Rahm Emanuel is sort of the keystone that holds the entire team together. You pull that architectural piece out and you've got to rearrange the structure," said Ross Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University in New Jersey.
"Whether they are dealing with enhanced Republican minorities or outright Republican majorities, (Emanuel's replacement) is going to have to be somebody who is not too ideological, who is willing to pursue a more centrist course and who is willing to work on bipartisan initiatives."
Obama has a tendency to rely heavily on a small coterie of close aides for advice. Many political analysts believe some fresh thinking and a reshuffled staff might help him arrest the slide in his popularity and bolster his relationships with Congress and the business community.
"There is an opportunity to bring people in and recharge the White House," said Christopher Arterton, a political science professor at George Washington University.
Not all of the difficulties can be attributed to management problems, he said, because much has resulted from the state of the economy Obama inherited.
Big-ticket legislative items such as healthcare reform and the overhaul of financial regulations have dominated Obama's first two years in office -- with Republicans almost unfailingly trying to block his way.
The second half of his four-year term may require more agility as he seeks to work with Republicans on issues such as reining in huge budget deficits and creating jobs while implementing the landmark reforms he has already passed.
"COARSENESS AND FINESSE"
Emanuel is known as a centrist Democrat but any of the candidates to replace him are likely bring a lower-key style.
"He has a combination of coarseness and finesse that can't be duplicated very easily," Baker said.
As White House chief of staff, Emanuel has a big influence on advancing Obama's legislative priorities as well as over who works for the president and even who gets to meet with him.
Deputy national security adviser Tom Donilon is seen as a leading candidate to replace Emanuel. Ron Klain, chief of staff to Vice President Joe Biden and senior Obama adviser Valerie Jarrett would also be strong contenders.
Donilon is certainly smoother than Emanuel, who is known for his expletive-laced style. Fans of Emanuel say his toughness is part of the secret of his success but others say a less abrasive manner could be a welcome change.
Still, Emanuel and Donilon are close. Like the current chief of staff, Donilon is a Washington veteran known as a strategic thinker. He is widely respected among White House staff and Obama thinks highly of him.
But Donilon is not part of the circle of four advisers -- Emanuel, Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, top political aide David Axelrod and Jarrett -- among whom much of the power in the Obama administration is concentrated.
All except Emanuel have long-standing ties with Obama and were senior aides during his 2008 presidential campaign.
"The central question is whether the president will use the opportunity of a staff change for a broadening out of influence," said one Democrat who speaks frequently to the White House.
A staff change would also give Obama a chance to recruit a prominent member of the business community amid criticism from some that his administration lacks people with that background at the highest levels.
Axelrod, who commutes on weekends to Chicago and has long hinted that he planned to stay only a few years in the administration, could be among those who depart after the congressional elections.
If Axelrod does go, there is widespread speculation Gibbs might move from the spotlight as the main White House spokesman into a behind-the-scenes role as a senior political adviser.
There have already been a series of changes on Obama's economic team. White House budget director Peter Orszag left the administration in July and top White House economist Christina Romer stepped down earlier this month.
Their departures leave unresolved a debate within the White House over whether to focus more heavily on deficit reduction or economic stimulus. (Editing by John O'Callaghan)
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