OPEC oil output falls to lowest since Nov 2009-UPDATE 2
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Thursday September 02, 2010 05:42:12 AM GMT
* Compliance with supply curbs rises to 53 percent
* Total OPEC oil output lowest since November 2009
* Nigeria, UAE, Iraq seen pumping less; Angola rises
(Adds graphic, analyst comment, further details)
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - OPEC crude oil supply fell in August to the lowest since November 2009 as reduced supplies from Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq offset increased output in Angola, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday.
Supply from the 11 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with output targets, all except Iraq, averaged 26.83 million barrels per day (bpd) last month, down from 26.95 million bpd in July, according to the survey of oil companies, OPEC officials and analysts.
The decline mainly reflects output disruption in Nigeria and Iraq rather than an OPEC effort to improve adherence to output targets. Analysts say higher compliance is unlikely without a slide in oil prices.
"OPEC would defend the floor of its informal $70 to $80-a-barrel range with cuts in actual output," said Mike Wittner, global head of oil research at Societe Generale.
"But in order for that to happen, prices would need to move significantly below $70 and look like they are going to stay there for a while."
OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, has left its output ceiling unchanged for more than a year since announcing a record supply curb of 4.2 million bpd in December 2008 to combat lower demand and prices.
Supply from the OPEC-11 was 1.99 million bpd higher in August than their target of 24.84 million bpd, the survey found, meaning the group achieved 2.21 million bpd of the supply curbs. That left compliance at 53 percent, up 3 percentage points from July. It peaked at 81 percent in April and March 2009, according to Reuters estimates.
Total OPEC supply including Iraq was down 140,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd, the lowest since November 2009 based on Reuters surveys.
NIGERIA, IRAQ
Oil was trading higher on Wednesday. U.S. crude oil was up 75 cents at $72.67 as of 1224 GMT.
Nigerian supply declined because of lower exports of crude grades including Qua Iboe and Bonny Light.
Shell in August declared force majeure on Bonny Light exports after a rise in sabotage on its pipelines. Qua Iboe loadings were also reduced in August, although a three-month-old force majeure ended early in the month.
Iraqi output was curbed because of disruption in the flow of Kirkuk crude exports through a pipeline to Turkey. There were at least three outages last month on the link, which faces frequent sabotage and technical problems.
The United Arab Emirates trimmed supplies to customers in August, bringing output closer to its target. OPEC's Gulf members continued to show among the highest rates of compliance.
While industry sources say that top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia is using more crude in power plants, as it tends to during the summer months, sources in the survey reported no sign of an increase in crude supply to market.
Angolan supply rebounded in August to 1.8 million bpd, with loading programmes showing three more cargoes being exported. That left supply 280,000 bpd above its OPEC target (see notes below), the most in absolute terms of any member.
Following is output in millions of barrels per day. Totals may not add due to rounding.
August July Implied total Implied
output output cut* target Algeria 1.25 1.26 0.2 1.2 Angola 1.8 1.7 0.24 1.52** Ecuador 0.47 0.47 0.07 0.43 Iran 3.61 3.62 0.56 3.34 Kuwait 2.3 2.3 0.37 2.22 Libya 1.57 1.57 0.25 1.47 Nigeria 2.12 2.28 0.32 1.67 Qatar 0.82 0.82 0.12 0.73 Saudi Arabia 8.3 8.3 1.32 8.05 UAE 2.29 2.33 0.38 2.22 Venezuela 2.3 2.3 0.36 1.99 OPEC 11 26.83 26.95 4.2 24.84 Iraq 2.26 2.28 TOTAL OPEC 29.09 29.23 Overproduction 1.99 2.11 Cut achieved 2.21 2.09 Compliance 53 percent 50 percent
* Includes cut of 2.2 million bpd starting from Jan. 1, 2009 and 2 million bpd of previously agreed curbs, which remain in effect. The breakdown comes from an OPEC document obtained by Reuters during the group's December 2008 meeting and was not officially released by OPEC.
** Angola says its target is 1.656 million bpd. OPEC has not clarified whether this or 1.52 million bpd is Angola's target.
OPEC quotas exclude condensate and natural gas liquids and apply to supply rather than wellhead output, defined to exclude movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti data includes Neutral Zone.
Saudi data excludes oil produced for Bahrain. Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil. Nigerian output includes the Agbami stream and excludes Oso and Akpo. (Editing by William Hardy and Jane Baird)
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