SCENARIOS-US climate action faces tough odds after election

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Friday September 10, 2010 01:52:19 AM GMT

By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Comprehensive climate control efforts, already in serious trouble in the U.S. Congress, could suffer more setbacks if Republicans take control of the House of Representatives or Senate in November's congressional elections.

Most Republicans are dead-set against legislation imposing mandatory reductions of greenhouse gas emissions from smokestacks and tailpipes. They also oppose pending Environmental Protection Agency regulations to cut carbon dioxide pollution, which is blamed for global warming.

Here are some possible moves to look out for if Republicans are in charge next year, or if they fall short but increase their seats in Congress.

HIT EPA WHERE IT HURTS -- ITS WALLET

Possibly the easiest way to stop EPA's upcoming carbon emissions rules would be to prohibit the agency from spending any money to enforce them. Republicans could try to attach language to appropriations bills explicitly banning the use of EPA funds to administer such regulations.

That could prompt Democratic President Barack Obama to wield his veto power, setting up a spending battle.

Interestingly, a couple of moderate Republicans could be in line to chair key appropriations subcommittees in a Republican-run House. It's unclear whether they would stand in the way of tying EPA's hands on climate by withholding money.

Other pending EPA Clean Air Act rules, such as one setting limits on smog-producing ozone, also could be challenged.

Republicans would stress regulations' impact on jobs, said Matt Dempsey, a spokesman for Senator James Inhofe, a leading opponent of climate control legislation. The Oklahoma senator is in line to head a key environment committee if Republicans hold a majority in the Senate next year.

STRIP AWAY EPA'S POWER

Forty-seven of the Senate's 100 senators voted in June to strip EPA of its power to regulate greenhouse gas emissions from large factories, electric power companies and possibly automobiles.

If more conservative Republicans enter the Senate in January, they could try again. Or, Democratic Senator John Rockefeller could succeed in winning a two-year pause on EPA climate regulations, which are unpopular in his coal-producing state of West Virginia.

"There would be a showdown" on EPA regulation, Dempsey predicted.

The Obama administration is trying to placate Rockefeller though. On Wednesday, it announced $40 million for a West Virginia lab to help it develop technology for clean-burning coal. Many scientists, however, question the technology's efficacy.

BABY STEPS, NOT MONSTER BILLS

For the first time in several years, the Senate will not be voting this year on a comprehensive "cap and trade" climate control bill. Opponents say it shows that the days of gigantic, 1,000-page global warming bills are over.

The new approach toward the environment might be doing things in increments.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said as much this week. "We are going to have to start looking at doing pieces of big things and not worry so much about the big things," the top Senate Democrat said.

While Reid might have been referring just to the rest of this year, such a strategy could be employed next year too.

Among the "pieces" that could win bipartisan support are:

-- New government funds for natural gas vehicles

-- Added incentives to build and expand nuclear power

-- Encouraging energy efficiency in buildings

-- Slashing emissions of sulfur dioxide, mercury and nitrogen oxide from smokestacks, including coal-fired power plants. The legislation could establish nationwide trading systems for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide pollution permits.

Environmentalists, while backing these steps, do not see them as being enough on their own to effectively tackle climate change. And Wall Street would not win the massive trading scheme for pollution permits that a comprehensive bill would provide.

RETURN OF THE BIG BILL

Might a comprehensive approach come back from the dead next year once elections are out of the way and looming EPA regulations scare lawmakers into action?

"The climate issue can be dealt with in many ways," including piecemeal, said Joe Mendelson, director of global warming policy for the National Wildlife Federation. But, he added, "There probably will be some attempts to take a bigger swing and do it in a more comprehensive nature."

If not cap and trade, which allows for a declining number of traded pollution permits, it's unclear whether simpler methods that have been discussed might get some traction.

RETURN OF THE 'MAVERICK'

That's John McCain, the Republican Arizona senator who used to be a leading advocate for climate change legislation. Facing re-election, McCain tacked to the right this year to fend off a primary challenge from a conservative Republican and sat out the climate debate.

Many are unsure which McCain will show up for the next Congress that convenes in January. If he engages, he could bring some Republican votes with him.

OTHER GOP PLAYERS COULD PLAY HARDBALL

-- Representative Doc Hastings could be in line to chair the Natural Resources Committee in a Republican-controlled House. He's a conservative who favors offshore oil drilling and expanding oil production in Alaska and on federal lands. He could help shift the debate away from climate control.

-- Representative Joe Barton could take back his chairmanship of the powerful Energy and Commerce Committee. He famously apologized to oil giant BP during June hearings on the Gulf of Mexico oil rig disaster. Barton also is the House's biggest recipient of oil and gas industry money. In December, on the sidelines of an international global warming meeting in Copenhagen, Barton told Reuters, "If I am chairman two years from now, I'm going to repeal" Obama administration measures, such as funds to help developing countries battle the effects of climate change.

Barton also said that he does not believe industrial emissions of carbon dioxide contribute to global warming.

--Representative James Sensenbrenner, who also questions human-induced global warming, could find himself chairing the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, which was created by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Alternatively, if Republicans win control of the House, they could shutter the panel, which has provided a forum for advancing climate change legislation.

-- Senator Richard Burr, if he wins re-election, could become chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in a Republican-controlled Senate. The current senior Republican, Lisa Murkowski, has been knocked out of Alaska's Senate race. Burr, representing North Carolina, the home of electricity giant Duke Energy, might place more emphasis on clean coal technology and nuclear power than Murkowski, whose state is a Big Oil center.

(Editing by Vicki Allen)

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